Go Fashion (India) Ltd. share price target

Go Fashion’s standalone Q3 6.2/3.3/3.9% y/y growth in sales/EBITDA/ PAT was anaemic but decent in the context of the weak demand situation. SSSG/SCSG was flat/4.8%. The gross margin rose 264bps y/y to 64.1%, led largely by low-cost inventory (but also by the favourable product mix and higher EBO sales).

Despite the challenging retail environment Go Fashion’s Q2 revenue grew 10.4% y/y, in line with ARe, led by 0.5% SSSG.

We hosted GOCOLORS (GO) for an Asia roadshow. GO remains confident of delivering medium-term revenue CAGR of >20%, with SSG recovery also helping EBITDA margin get back to the 20-21% range.

Go Fashion continues to report double-digit revenue growth (16% YoY in Q1FY25), primarily driven by retail area expansion (12% YoY EBO stores) while SSSG remains muted.

Go Fashion’s Q1 revenue came in line with our estimates but the EBITDA margin was ~80bps lower than ARe at 32.8%, on the 0.2% y/y SSSG as sluggish demand was further hurt by the elections and searing heat.

We visited multiple Go Colors (GO) stores across Mumbai to validate our thesis
around the bottom-wear category and its TAM. Our conviction on category
relevance got strengthened when we saw customers walking in with their tops
to find their perfect color match.

GO’s Q4 print was weak, albeit results were largely in line and outperformance
(vs. peers) continued with 15% topline growth.

Go Fashion reported revenue growth of 15% YoY driven by continued EBOs expansion (+19% YoY), while SSSG declined by 1% YoY (same-store volume declined by 6%) due to subdued consumer demand environment and seasonality shift. However, ~6% increase in average selling price is reflective of continued improvement in revenue mix (premiumisation from value-added products).

In EBO channel (~74% revenue saliency) we liked the strong value (at 38%), volume (at 25%) and SSSG (at 17%: including 6% price hike, 5% volume and 6% from NPDs) led revenue performance. 10% increase in average selling price is reflective of improvement in revenue mix (from value-added products).

We like the high double-digit SSSG (both YoY and vs. pre-covid quarters) in EBO stores (73% saliency) in Q3FY23 while LFS maintained high-growth momentum. This was driven by premiumisation benefits (through category extensions, higher ASP) given that there was no price hike.

2QFY23 revenue print of Rs1.66bn (up 48% QoQ) was good. Higher EOSS sequentially (GM dilutive) and sharp increase in other opex (mainly ad-spends) led to (reported) EBITDA margin print of 29.8%.

We like the increased ad-spends in the quarter (4.9% of sales vs typical 2%) – these are good spends and we expect (good) brands to increase it in the near-term given most have under-invested for last two years; that said, only limited ones have the required headroom given the inflationary pressure.

We liked the intent to (1) drive investments (on tech., A&P (maybe a slight increase), building another (small) warehouse to drive efficiencies) and not be complacent, (2) comfort on margins (price increases taken), (3) continued thrust on EBO store addition (intent is to add 120-130 stores each year going forward), and (4) active (RM) inventory management given the challenges.

Issue Open: Nov 17 Nov 22 2021 Price Band: Rs. 655 690 *Issue Size: Rs 1014.0 cr (Fresh issue of Rs 125 cr+ offer for sale of 12,878,389 eq sh) Reservation for: QIB atleast 75% eq sh Non Institutional Upto 15% eq sh Retail Upto 10% eq sh Go Fashion (India) Limited (Go Colors) - IPO Note

Incorporated in 2010, Go Fashion (India) Limited is one of the largest womens bottom-wear brands in India. The company is engaged in the development, design, sourcing, marketing, and retailing of a range of womens bottom-wear products under the brand, Go Colors. The company offers one of the widest portfolios of bottom-wear products among womens apparel

IPO note

Widespread distribution network consisting of 459 exclusive branded outlets (70% of revenue) and available in 1200+ LFS' (22% of revenue) Strong operating metrics with one of the industry's highest revenue/sq ft...

The Company will not receive any proceeds of the Offer for Sale by the Selling Shareholder. (by PKS Family Trust of up to 745,676 equity shares, by VKS Family Trust of up to 745,676 equity shares, by Sequoia Capital India Investments IV of up to 7,498,875 equity shares, by India Advantage Fund S4 I of up to 3,311,478 equity shares and by Dynamic India Fund S4 US I...