Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. share price target

Jubilant Foodworks reported a sales growth of 6.3% YoY at ? 13,345mn during Q1FY24 over ? 12,523mn on the back of continuous store addition. Although, the LFL came in weak at (1.3)% YoY leading to a declined EBITDA / PAT margins by 370bps / 680bps. The Dine-in channels reported flat revenue and green shoots in Delivery Channel with 8.4% growth.

Three positives from 1QFY24: (1) sequential improvement in LFL ADS (led by new product launches in value range and outperformance in the delivery business), (2) continuing traction in the loyalty program (enrolments up 24% YoY, 48% revenue share) and (3) on-track Popeyes retail expansion (to add 30-35 in FY24).

Jubilant Foodworks reported a sales growth of 8.2% YoY at ? 12,523mn during Q4FY23 over ? 11,579mn, failing to impress with flat LFL of (0.6%). The weak LFL impacted the margins leading to a decline of 210bps and 520bps in the EBITDA and PAT margins respectively (EBITDAM – 21.2% and PATM – 2.2%).

We believe the Cheesy Rewards loyalty programme initiated by Jubilant FoodWorks (JUBI) in 2022 may drive higher SSSG which shall more than offset the incremental cost (of free regular size pizza after every sixth order).

SSSG continues to be flat impacted by decline in average ticket size (consumer down trading due to inflation) while order volume remains healthy. Revenue performance in both delivery and dine-in segment has been moderate. Consequently, overall revenue growth (at 8% YoY, 8% 4Y CAGR) underperformed retail expansion (16% YoY, 10% 4Y CAGR).