Jubilant Pharmova Ltd. share price target

Jubilant Life Sciences' (JUBL) Q4FY19 revenue grew marginally by 6% YoY as the growth in the pharma (59% of Q4FY19 revenue) and DDS (3%) segments was muted by a decline in the LSI (38%) segment. RubyFill continues to gain market share, but the company is currently incurring costs to develop the market for future revenue and higher margins. Triad to breakeven in FY21. LSI was impacted by a sharp drop in acetic acid prices (from USD 600 during 9MFY19 to USD 450 in Q4FY19), high inventory cost, and pricing pressure for molasses. JUBL guided that there will be product launches and capacity...

Pharmaceuticals business segment growth likely to be healthy Recent long term contracts in the radiopharma business as well as approval for Rubyfill in the US will strengthen the speciality sub-segment growth, which is likely to grow at ~20.5% CAGR in FY18-21E to | 3856 crore on the back of strong growth in the radiopharma business and consolidation of pharmacy business. CDMO business is witnessing strong traction on the back of robust order book and incremental realisation in API segment. Generic business is also registering decent growth on the back of base...

Despite facing regulatory issues with the generic business, JUBILANT to report at least 10% revenue growth in our view, aided by increasing traction in specialty segments and LSI business. However, margin expansion at 150bps (FY19-21E) is likely to be slower than anticipated earlier due to persistent cost pressures in LSI and inferior business mix. Still, with the help of reduced debt (by US$ 135mn), we expect EPS to deliver 19% CAGR over FY19-21E. With a 30% fall in stock price over the last 2 months owing to regulatory issues, the valuations have become really attractive at 10/8x FY20/21E P/E. Maintain BUY We maintain BUY on JUBILANT despite a miss on our estimates. Our TP is revised at Rs 915/sh (12x FY21E EPS) following a 9% cut in FY21E EPS due to inferior biz mix.

USFDA issued four observations (including sartan productions) post inspection of Roorkee plant in August CY18. While the plant contributes US$50m in revenues, we expect a bigger impact will come from lack of...

The Q3FY19 numbers were operationally in-line with I-direct estimates, with revenues up 15.0% YoY to | 2377.1 crore (I-direct estimates: | 2436.5 crore). Revenues in the pharma business grew 28.8% YoY to | 1418 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1497 crore) on the back of strong growth across segments. Life science ingredients (LSI) revenues fell 2.9% YoY to | 899 crore (I-direct estimate: | 865 crore) EBITDA margins improved 59 bps YoY to 20.8% (I-direct estimate: 19.8%) mainly due to an improvement in gross margins. EBITDA...

We maintain BUY with TP of Rs 1,070 (14x Dec-20E EPS). Jubilant (JUBL) reported strong operating performance with revenue growing 15/5% YoY/QoQ to Rs 23.8bn in 3QFY19 (8% beat). This was primarily driven by the robust 29% growth in the Pharma segment (60% of sales), while LSI segment declined 3% and the smaller DDS segment grew 22% YoY. EBITDA came in at Rs 4.9bn with margin at 20.8% (+60/90bps YoY/QoQ, in-line). Margin expansion was led by higher gross margin at 63.2% owing to improved business mix. PAT stood at Rs 2.7bn, up 26/28% YoY/QoQ aided by higher other income.

With Pharma business being its leader in growth and profitability, Jubilant Change in Estimates | Target | Reco beat our estimates and grew consolidated revenues, EBITDA and PAT by 15%, 18% and 23% YoY respectively. While revenues were in line (2%), the...

JLS reported revenue of INR44b, EBITDA margin of 20.4% and PAT of INR4.1bin 1HFY19. Management reiterated that it is well placed to improve on this performance in 2HFY19.

Maintain BUY rating with a target price of Rs 980 (SEP20E EV/EBITDA 10x for pharma + 4x for LSI). Jubilants 2QFY19 performance was boosted by generic pharma, LSI and the integration of Triad pharmacies. Revenues were up 38.2% YoY to Rs 22.7bn (6% beat). Ex-triad, we believe, it grew ~14% YoY. EBITDA came in at Rs 4.5bn, 6% below our expectations. The margins were affected by lower profitability of the LSI segment of 12%. PAT was at ~Rs 2bn, up 67% YoY, 14% lower than our estimates due to higher taxes at 30% of PBT.

Jubilant Life Sciences' (Jubilant) Q2FY19 numbers were a mixed bag. While revenues were above I-direct estimates, EBITDA margins were below estimates mainly due to lower-than-expected margins in speciality pharma and LSI segments Revenues grew 38.2% YoY mainly due to 54.1% growth in pharma segment to | 1326 crore led by strong growth in the speciality business, one-off Valsartan sales in generics and consolidation of Pharmacy business. Ex-pharmacy, the segment grew 33%...