IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. share price target

wins improves its book bill to ratio to 2.5x its Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) construction revenue from 1.85x at the end of Q3FY2018. These order wins come at a stitch in time as its book to bill ratio was at a three year's low. This in turn had cast a doubt on its construction segment revenue growth outlook. IRB now stands successful in reviving growth in its...

IRB Infrastructure's (IRB) topline de-grew 13.0% YoY to | 1122.7 crore (our estimate: | 1336.7 crore) due to sharp drop in toll revenues as seven BOT assets were transferred to InVIT EBITDA margins declined sharply by 395 bps YoY to 51.0% (our estimate: 47.0%) due to higher proportion of revenues from low margin construction division (66.8% in Q2FY18 vs 56.5% in Q2FY17) PAT grew robustly by 65.0% YoY to | 234.7 crore (our estimate: | 195.8 crore) due to higher other income (| 146.5 crore in Q2FY18...

Revenues of the company for Q2FY18 were slightly lower than our estimates due to lower than expected toll revenues. BOT revenues are not comparable due to transfer of assets to InVIT. Consolidated operating margins witnessed an improvement due to higher other income accrued in the EPC/BOT segment owing to transfer of projects to InVIT as well as dividend income from InVIT. Net profit performance stood ahead of our estimates led by fall in interest expense and higher other income despite higher tax rate for the quarter....

Maintain BUY with SOTP of Rs 270/sh. IRBs 2QFY18 revenue, EBIDTA and PAT were (15.7)/ (7.5)/9.1% ahead/ (below) our estimates. BOT revenue (ex-6 BOTs, which were transferred to IRB InvIT) de-grew 33.8% YoY. EBITDA margins contracted ~395bps YoY, owing to higher EPC revenue share (70% rev share vs 57% YoY). The EPC segment has lower EBIDTA margins vs BOT.

Operating performance below expectations: IRB's revenue declined 13% YoY to INR11.2b, below our estimate of INR13.2b, due to weaker-thanestimated BoT revenue (led by subdued traffic growth on account of GST implementation). Operating profit stood at INR5.7b (-19.5% YoY), below our estimate of INR6.8b. Operating margin shrunk 390bp YoY to 51% due to an adverse revenue mix (higher contribution from the low-margin construction business). Adj. profit of INR1.5b missed our estimate of INR1.9b. BoT revenue impacted by GST: Toll revenue from continuing projects grew 22% YoY to INR3.9b, supported by a toll hike of 18.5% at the Mumbai-Pune...

Revenue rose by 11.66% to Rs. 1816.88 Cr in Q1FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Revenue rose by 11.66% to Rs. 1816.88 Cr in Q1FY18 when compared to the previous quarter.

Maintain BUY with SOTP of Rs 288/sh. IRBs 1QFY18 Revenue, EBIDTA and PAT were 30/16.3/10.9% ahead of our estimates on account of robust EPC revenue growth of 45% YoY. EBITDA margins contracted ~600bps YoY to 45% led by change in revenue mix towards EPC (73% rev share vs 61% YoY) which has lower EBIDTA margins (30%) vs BOT Assets (85%). IRBs 1QFY18 order backlog of Rs 89.1bn (2.5x FY17 EPC revenue) provides growth visibility on EPC front with EPC revenue expected to grow 10-15% in FY18E.

IRB Infrastructure's (IRB) topline grew robustly by 19.7% YoY to | 1816.9 crore (our estimate: | 1478.0 crore) led by stellar growth of 44.7% YoY in construction revenues to | 1320.9 crore (our estimate: | 975.3 crore). However, with six BOT assets transferred to InVIT, toll revenue fell 17.8% YoY to | 496.0 crore (our estimate: | 502.7 crore) EBITDA margins declined sharply by 600 bps YoY to 45.0% (our estimate: 48.7%) due to a change in the revenue mix PAT grew robustly by 30.8% YoY to | 237.9 crore (our estimate:...

IRBs 4QFY17 Revenue, EBIDTA and PAT were 5.5/2.1/7.6% ahead of our estimates on account of execution pickup in EPC segment (8.6% YoY) and savings in depreciation, interest and tax. EBITDA margins expanded ~243bps YoY to 50.5% led by 445/99bps YoY increase in EPC/BOT margins.

With IRB having received Rs17bn from INViT, it is now well funded to bag new projects under the BOT model and is targeting to win another 500kms of projects in FY18 in addition to existing order book of Rs92bn that gives 2.5 years of EPC revenue visibility. We have revised our SOTP based value for IRB to Rs283) as we adjust for 6 BOT...