IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. share price target

Yet to receive appointed date for Tamil Nadu HAM projects IRB's consolidated order book declined to | 11,076.6 crore in Q4FY19 from | 12,167.3 crore in Q3FY19. The current OB implies order book-to-bill ratio of 2.4x on FY19 construction revenues, providing good revenue visibility ahead. In terms order inflow, it expects order inflows worth | 3000-5000 crore for BOT projects in FY20E. In terms of execution, it received appointed date and has commenced work on Vadodara-Kim HAM project in January, 2019. It received financial closure for other two HAM projects in Tamil Nadu....

Despite a challenging environment (liquidity crunch faced by NBFCs and a few PSUs), IRB has managed to successfully get financial closures for all its projects. With Mumbai Pune BOT set to end in 2QFY19, further delays in appointed dates for the 2 Kerala HAMs will lead to a pressure on consolidated revenue. To maintain revenue visibility it is extremely crucial that IRB replenishes its backlog in the next round of BOT/HAM tendering. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Delay in toll revenue pickup, (2) Banks aversion to BOT/HAM funding, (3) High interest rate, and (4) Delay in appointed dates. We maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 212/Sh. We have made minor +1.2/1.7% change to consolidated FY20/21E EPS.

by 41% y-o-y to Rs. 1,948 crore, led by strong growth in construction income (up 59.1% y-o-y) and healthy BOT revenue (up 8.7% y-o-y). Barring Ahmedabad Vadodara (toll revenue up 12% y-o-y) and Kaithal Rajasthan (up 39.1% y-o-y), like-to-like comparison of BOT portfolio shows a decline of 2.6% y-o-y (down 1.3% y-o-y). Management attributes slower growth in toll...

(ahead of our est. of INR7.3b) with margins shrinking 8.7pp YoY to 39% due to contraction in Construction margins (21.4% v/s 26.8% in 4QFY18). Adjusted profit declined 13% YoY to INR2.1b (below our est. of INR2.2b). EPC revenue growth dependent on BoT/HAM projects' appointed date: EPC revenue for FY19 grew 20% YoY to INR45.3b, with EBIDTA growth of 2% YoY to INR11.1b. For FY20, IRB expects EPC revenue to grow 30-35% YoY (INR61b at upper end of guidance); we believe this is heavily dependent on availability of the four BoT/HAM projects for which appointed date is still...

Maintain BUY with a reduced SOTP based TP of Rs 246/sh (EPC standalone at 7.5x Dec-20E EPS and ~60% discount to peers). IRBs 3QFY19 Revenue/EBIDTA/PAT were 7/5/7% ahead of our estimates at Rs 17.9/7.6/2.2bn. EPC margin witnessed a 612bps YoY drop led by ~Rs 1bn of revenue from utility shifting (with negligible margins) and ~150-200bps impact of increase in raw material costs.

IRB Infrastructure's (IRB) topline grew 38.0% YoY to | 1788.5 crore (our estimate: | 1604.2 crore) on account of strong growth in construction and toll revenues. Construction revenues grew 54.9% YoY to | 1253.3 crore on account of strong execution. Toll revenues have grown 21.7% YoY to | 531.6 crore EBITDA margin declined sharply by 611 bps YoY to 42.5% (our estimate: 48.0% mainly due to lower margin in the construction division. The construction division margins (including other income)...

4 February 2019 by a healthy 38% YoY to INR17.9b (ahead of our estimate of INR15.4b), supported by strong growth in construction revenue (+51% YoY to INR12.5b) and an increase in BoT revenue (+16% YoY to INR5.3b). Operating profit grew 13% YoY to INR7.6b (ahead of our estimate of INR7.2b), with margin shrinking 950bp YoY to 42.5% due to contraction in Construction margins (24.5% v/s 29.4% in 3QFY18). Adjusted profit at INR2.2b (-13% YoY) was ahead of our estimate of INR2.0b. Toll revenue from continuing projects came in at INR5.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research IRB Infrastructure's (IRB) topline grew 27.6% YoY to | 1432.3 crore (our estimate: | 1511.5 crore) on account of strong growth in construction and toll revenues. The construction revenues grew...

Maintain BUY with SOTP of Rs 256/sh (EPC at EPC standalone at 7.5x Mar-20E EPS and ~60% discount to peers). IRBs 2QFY19 Revenue, EBIDTA and PAT came in 17/ 30/62% ahead of our estimates at Rs 14.3/6.7/1.7bn. 2QFY19 toll revenues (affected by 8 days of transport strike) were 5.3% lower QoQ (post adj. for exempt Rs 96mn claim in 1QFY19).

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research IRB Infrastructure's (IRB) topline de-grew 15.4% YoY to | 1538.0 crore (our estimate: | 1437.2 crore) as construction revenues degrew 21.6% YoY to | 1035.1 crore (our estimate: | 910.5 crore) due...