Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. share price target

*over or under performance to benchmark index Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) manufactures petroleum and petroleum products and is engaged in the exploration and refining of crude oil. Its products include lubricating oils, liquid petroleum gas, aviation turbine fuel, etc. IOC's presence across the...

Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) reported an EBITDA of Rs135.7bn, up 90.7% QoQ (PLe: Rs68.2bn, BBGe:Rs78.7bn). Adj PAT came in at Rs72.6bn (up 231% QoQ, PLe: Rs17.5bn, BBGe:Rs14.7bn). There was an exceptional gain of Rs10.5mn for VAT input tax credit. Reported GRM came in at US$7.85/bbl, up 166% QoQ (PLe: US$6/bbl). GMM stood at Rs6.8/ltr (PLe:Rs3.5/ltr). In Q1-TD, gross margin on petrol/diesel has risen to Rs12.3/9.7/ltr. However, average Singapore GRM continues to remain weak at US$3/bbl and the company is likely to report...

IOCL’s 4QFY25 EBITDA was a 110% beat on est., driven by higher-thanestimated GRM (USD8/bbl) as well as marketing margins (INR5.9/lit). With tax rate coming in below est., resultant PAT stood 5x above est. at INR72.6b.

IOCL’s Q3FY25 SA EBITDA was Rs91.5bn, at a 25% miss to our estimate due to lower-than expected GRM (at USD2.95 from inventory loss of USD3.7/bbl) and weak marketing performance amid LPG under recoveries of Rs54.5bn.

IOCL’s reported 3QFY25 financial performance was below our expectations, mainly led by a weak reported refining margin. Inventory losses stood at USD3.7/bbl (INR52b) in 3Q.

IOCL's Q1 reflected weaker core refining margin and impact of LPG under-recovery, although it had healthy fuel marketing margins

IOCL’s 4QFY24 EBITDA of INR104b (down 27% YoY) was 26% below our
estimate of INR141b due to weaker-than-estimated reported GRM (USD8.4/
bbl in 4QFY24 vs. our estimate of USD15.0/bbl)

Indian Oil Corporation’s (IOCL) Q1FY24 EBITDA and PAT of INR 221.6bn and INR 137.5bn beat our estimates of INR 175bn and INR 103bn, respectively. The numbers were also well ahead of Q1FY23 EBITDA of INR 13.6bn and net loss of INR 19.9bn. Reported GRM of USD 8.3/bbl in Q1FY24 was down by USD 6.9/bbl QoQ and USD 23.5/bbl YoY (in-line), while refining throughput was at 18.8mt (down 1% YoY, in-line).

Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) has reported a recurring standalone EBITDA of Rs153bn and net earnings of Rs100.6bn for Q4FY23. Earnings were well ahead of our estimates of Rs80.5bn EBITDA and PAT of Rs35.6bn.