Inox Leisure Ltd. share price target

We continue to believe that the multiplex industry is the best placed media segment for growth driven by traction in content performance. Both PVR and Inox remain key beneficiaries of a flourishing multiplex business, which is one of the proxies on rising urban discretionary consumption spends. We value PVR at 14.5x FY21E EV/EBITDA (ex-Ind-AS 116) and arrive at a target price of | 2200 with a BUY rating. We value Inox at 10x FY21E (ex-Ind-AS 116) EV/EBITDA (~30% discount to target EV/EBITDA multiple of PVR) to...

Launched the loyalty program (see details on page 2). renovated property in Mumbai), Siddharth Jain, Director, emphasized on how the strategy of penetrating in metro/tier-1 markets with constrained aggression has helped in improving ATP/SPH/Ad revenue per screen. In order to penetrate deeper into the North, lot of screens have been signed in Gurgaon & Noida. However, Delhi continues to remain a challenge given scarcity of new malls. In all, the target of adding 70 screens for FY20E remains intact. A new loyalty program was also unveiled with a clear focus on...

Content pipeline remains strong; screen adds to be lower Q2 marked all-time highest box office collection quarter led by six films namely Mission Mangal, The Lion King, Super 30, Chhichhore, Saaho and Dream Girl collecting | 100+ crore. The content slate, going forward, is also encouraging with movies such as Housefull 4, Dabangg 3, Bala, Chhapaak, Tanhaji, etc, which should drive healthy box office collections ahead. We highlight that given the delays in licenses, the company lowered its screen addition guidance to 71 screens vs. 80 screens earlier, while we bake in 65...

Inox Leisure (IIL) reported a strong set of performance during Q2FY2020 in-line with our expectation of strong footfalls owing to healthy content despite softness in ad revenues amid ongoing slowdown in discretionary spending. Revenue registered a growth of 42.3% y-o-y to Rs 519.9 crores (ahead of our expectation of 492.1 crores by 5.7%) led by 51% and 48% y-o-y growth net box office collection (NBOC) and Food & Beverage (F&B;) revenues as advertising revenues grew at a soft pace of 5% y-o-y. IIL reported...

Inox Leisure's (INOL) Q1FY20 result is in-line with our forecast. Revenue grew by 18.8% YoY to Rs4,930 mn and EBITDA margin (adjusted for Ind-AS 116 impact) declined by 205bps YoY to 18.1%. Adj. EPS of Rs4 was unchanged YoY. INOL has maintained its FY20 screen addition target of 80 screens (21 added Y-T-D). We remain conservative and forecast addition of 70 screens each in FY20/21E. We largely maintain our FY20/21 forecast which factors revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 15.3%/14.6% over FY19-21E. Our forecast continues to have upside risk of higher screen addition and utilization (27.9%/27.3% for FY20/21 vs. 28% in FY19). We maintain BUY...

Strong content pipeline ahead to drive growth The quarter, despite a decent base, was a healthy one aided by strong performance from Avengers Endgame, Kabir Singh, etc. The content slate, going forward, is also encouraging with movies such as Kick 2, Mission Mangal, Bramhastra, War, Housefull 4, etc, which should drive healthy box office collections ahead. The company has guided for annual screen addition of 80, going ahead, while we bake in 75 and 70 screen addition for FY20E and FY21E, respectively. Consequently, we build in healthy footfall growth...

Inox Leisure (IIL) reported revenue growth of 18.8% y-o-y to Rs 493 crores, (marginally below our expectation of Rs 511 crores) led by 19%, 19% and 18% y-o-y growth in Net box office collections, Food & Beverage and advertising revenues respectively. On a like-to-like basis, IIL reported 5.9% y-o-y growth in EBITDA to Rs 89 crores (marginally ahead of our expectation of Rs 85 crores) and adjusted PAT of Rs 41 crores up by 10.2% y-o-y basis (ahead of our expectation of Rs 38 crores). The management reiterated its screen...

We reiterate Inox Leisure as a BUY with price target of INR 442 (8.5xEV/EBITDA of FY22E), representing a growth of 24% over a period of next 18 months. Currently, the stock is trading at a CMP of Rs.371 (7.1xEV/EBDITDA FY22E).

Strong content pipeline ahead to drive growth Growth during the quarter was marked by strong contribution from surprise hits with long tails, which also boosted the multiplex share of box office revenues. We highlight that Q1FY20, despite a decent base, started strongly with Avengers Endgame collecting | 300+ crore (first for a Hollywood film). The content slate, going forward, is also encouraging with movies such as Bharat, Super 30, Kick 2, Mission Mangal, Brahmastra, etc. We note that the company has guided for annual screen addition of 80+ going ahead, while...

Inox Leisure (INOL) reported a blockbuster Q4FY19. Revenue growth of 48% YoY was in-line with our forecast. EBITDA margin improved by a whopping 680 bps YoY to 20.3% and was ~60bps higher than our forecast. Further, Recurring EPS was aided by lower tax rate and grew by ~280% YoY to Rs5.2. After adding 85 screens (82 on net basis) in FY19, a all-time high, INOL targets to add 80 screens in FY20 (9 added YTD). It targets 80+ screens for FY21 as well. We have factored...