Star Cement Ltd. share price target

As market leader, Star Cement’s Q3 volume growth outstripped northeastern demand growth, but its operational performance was hit by the delayed Meghalaya clinker stabilisation, higher maintenance shutdown cost, higher freight on a highway being constructed, etc.

Revenues rose ~10%/12% YoY/QoQ in Q3FY25 backed by volume gains though realisations stayed flat

We maintain our BUY rating on the stocks.

Timely capacity expansion (new 4mnt grinding unit by FY27) to help volume growth ahead of industry tapping buoyancy in north-east region

We maintain our BUY rating on the stocks.

Revenue rose 10% backed by healthy 9% volume gains and realisations remained flat YoY/QoQ at Rs 6,560/t with improved regional mix

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a TP of Rs 250/share, implying an upside potential of 20% from the CMP.

Star Cement’s (Star) Q1FY25 performance appears to be in the slow lane owing to muted volumes (flat YoY) and ‘one-off’ cost impact (external purchase of clinker).

We change our recommendation from HOLD to BUY as we see the recent correction in stock price as a good entry point.

Steady 11% growth in a challenging quarter assisted by 12% YoY volume increase; realisations softens

We change our recommendation from BUY to HOLD as recent appreciation in the stock price leaves us with little upside.

STRCEM reported a mixed set of numbers, EBITDA and blended realisation in line with our estimate, while revenue and volume are marginally ahead of our estimate. Revenue up by 10.1% YoY (+40.2% QoQ) to Rs9.13bn, mainly led by 13.8% YoY (+43.7% QoQ) increase in volume of 1.41mt (1.387mt cement + 0.024mt clinker) sales.

We initiate coverage on Star Cement Ltd (STRCEM) with a “BUY” recommendation and target price of Rs262 based on 10x FY26E EV/EBITDA.

Star Cement Ltd (SCL) reported decent sales growth of 5.5% YoY at Rs 651 cr driven by an underlying sales volume growth of 6.1% YoY at 1.0 mn tonnes. The sales growth was partially offset by muted cement prices which led to a marginal decline of 0.5% YoY in realization at Rs 6,764 per ton.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock and roll over our estimate to FY26.

Steady growth in a challenging quarter aided by 7% YoY volume pickup; realisations softened

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Monsoon impact in northeast markets kept Q2 volumes flat YoY at 0.9mt while realisation slipped 2%