Indraprastha Gas Ltd. share price target

As per media reports and our channel checks, Indraprastha Gas (IGL) could see a potential EBITDA/scm upside of 16-20% due to a change in the tax rate on gas sourced from Gujarat (official confirmation is awaited).

In 1QFY26, IGL’s EBITDA margin of INR6.2/scm came in below our est. of INR6.8/scm. Volumes at 9.13mmscmd stood in line with our estimate.

*over or under performance to benchmark index IGL's dependence on higher-cost alternatives to offset lower APM allocations could impact margins. Although the guidance is bullish, with management aiming for an EBITDA margin of 78/scm in the long term, medium-term profitability risks persistespecially if the company is unable to implement price hikes. The Delhi EV 2.0 policy also remains an overhang, keeping the company out of favor. Therefore,...

Indraprastha Gas (IGL) reported ~27/31% dip in Q4FY25 EBITDA/PAT, but earnings were still ahead of I-Sec estimates, helped by a small beat on adjusted EBITDA/scm (INR 4.6/scm vs I-Sec est of INR 4.3/scm).

Margin guidance at Rs6-7/scm for Q1FY26 and Rs7-8/scm for long term Indraprastha Gas (IGL) reported a revenue of Rs39.5bn, however there was provision reversal of Rs1.14bn with regard to trade margin agreements with the OMCs. Accordingly, adj rev came in at Rs38.4bn, up 2.1% QoQ (PLe: Rs38.3bn, BBGe:Rs38.6bn). While reported EBITDA came in at Rs5bn, adj EBITDA stood at Rs3.8bn (up 5.4% QoQ, PLe:Rs3.9bn, BBGe: Rs4.2bn). Reported PAT came in at Rs3.5bn while adj PAT stood at Rs2.4bn (down 17.7% QoQ, PLe:Rs2.5bn,...

In 4QFY25, IGL’s adj. EBITDA margin of INR4.6/scm came in below our est. of INR5/scm. Volumes stood at 9.18mmscmd, slightly lower than our est. of 9.29mmscmd.

IGL indicated near-term increase of Rs 5-6/kg due to loss of APM gas allocation for CNG segment and confirms need for price increase

The company reported revenue of Rs. 3891 crores, reflecting a 3% increase year-over-year and a 2%
decrease quarter-over-quarter. This performance exceeded our expectations by 8%.

Quarterly Update Q1FY25

IGL has reported EBITDA/PAT of INR 5.8bn/INR 4.0bn, down 9.4%/8.4% YoY in Q1FY25. Volume of 8.64mmscmd grew 5.3% YoY but was down 1% QoQ, while EBITDA/scm of INR 7.4/scm saw QoQ growth and exceeded I-Sec’s estimate of INR 6.9/scm.

While Q4 EBITDA missed consensus on higher expense booking in a quarter, IGL gained traction in industrials, commercials and households

Quarterly Update Q4FY24

AMBER: Persistent near-term challenges; cut to SELL. CPI and IIP: Still some pain points on inflation. Credit Composition: Study on personal loans. HMCL: Healthy quarter but positives priced in. TMX: Improving order outlook; maintain HOLD. BANDHAN: Recovery on track. IGL: Legacy UP, new GAs can offset slowdown, reiterate BUY. ZYWL: Seasonally weak quarter