Hindalco Industries Ltd. share price target

Hindalco (HNDL)'s subsidiary Novelis' 2QFY21 EBITDA surprised with 20% YoY growth to USD455m (est. USD348m). This was led by 11% YoY volume growth (Aleris acquisition) and adj. EBITDA/t of USD493 (est. USD396). Management has raised the sustainable EBITDA margin guidance for Novelis to USD480500/t (from USD450475/t). We raise our FY21E EBITDA by 7%, factoring in strong margins for Novelis. Deleveraging is also playing out well, with strong FCF and asset divestitures while the sale of Duffel has been completed, the sale of Lewisport has been...

Hindalco (HNDL) remains our preferred non-ferrous pick owing to its (a) robust volume recovery both in India and Novelis, (b) strong primary aluminum business profitability given its low-cost integrated aluminum operations in India (in top quartile globally) and higher LME, (c) solid FCF generation, which should reduce leverage sharply, and (d) reasonable valuation. With ~70% EBITDA contribution now coming from the non-LME business (Novelis), we also see relatively higher stability in HNDL's earnings. While we expect aluminum prices to sustain on the back of demand recovery,...

Hindalco reported net sales of Rs. 25,283cr, a decline of 15.6% YoY due to sharp decline in its aluminum and copper businesses. Aluminum business net revenue fell to Rs. 4,436cr (-19.2%YoY) majorly impacted by lower aluminum prices. Aluminum metal sales Q1FY21 sales was down 5.3% YoY to 303Kt due to low demand in infrastructure and industrial segments. Copper business fell 34.0% YoY to Rs. 3,031cr due to lower volumes and realization of copper and by-products. Novelis revenue reached to Rs....

Other income rose 42% to Rs 419 crore. PBDIT decreased 38% to Rs 2352 crore. Interest cost rose 4% to Rs 992 crore in current quarters compared to Rs 957 core in the corresponding previous year quarter. Depreciation rose 25% to Rs 1544 crore. PBT before EO reported loss of...

Hindalco (HNDL) reported Q1FY21 earnings in line with our expectation. Improvement in prices and lower cost of production (CoP) shall continue to support AL earnings. While, Copper (CU) operation's earnings would remain under pressure in FY21e due to 23% reduction in Treatment/Refining charges (Tc/Rc) for CY20 at 15.9/lb, planned shutdowns and weak demand....

EBITDA was down 40% YoY to USD219m on like-to-like basis (excluding Aleris) due to the impact of COVID-19. Aleris) with EBITDA of USD34m (included in 1QFY21 results). Re-iterate *estimate based on ex-Aleris basis, hence, not comparable Beverage can volumes declined to low single-digit during the quarter as weakness in South America and Asia can volumes was offset by strong demand Demand remains resilient in North America and Europe due to strong in-house consumption trend. The company achieved record shipments in automotive in China during the However, volumes recovered gradually during the quarter led by restocking demand from customers and are back to pre-COVID levels. Demand is also gradually improving on MoM basis, led by strong demand from Management expects aluminum-scrap spreads to remain strong in North Interest cost should stand at USD260-270m for the full year (v/s USD240m in FY20), which is lower than expected due to lower prevailing interest rates.

Novelis' adj. EBITDA in Q1FY21 fell 29% QoQ/32% YoY at US$253mn (PLe:US$247mn) due to 38% QoQ/41% YoY fall in Novelis' legacy operation's EBITDA at US$219mn, offset by US$34mn of EBITDA contributed by Aleris....

LME Aluminum price recovered ~16% from recent lows of USD1,422/t to USD1,655/t (currently), led by higher demand in China. In 2QCY20, primary aluminum consumption in China grew by 5% YoY, whereas demand ex-China declined 28% YoY, resulting in a 9% YoY drop. In 2QCY20, global primary aluminum demand declined 9% YoY to 15.5mt. According to Norsk Hydro, the Aluminum market was in surplus of ~2.5mt (supply v/s consumption) in 2QCY20 as primary aluminum production increased 1.2% YoY in 1HCY20 amid declining demand. In 2QCY20, global aluminum stocks rose by 0.7mt QoQ to 14.2mt, led by a 1.6mt rise in ex-China inventory to 9.3mt. Rolled Aluminum market demand is guided to improve substantially in 3QCY20; it is likely to decline by just 7% YoY in North America and 11% YoY in Europe v/s decline of 29% and 26%, respectively, in 2QCY20. Extrusion Aluminum demand would decline 14%/22% in North America/Europe in 3QCY20 (v/s decline of 30%/32% in 2QCY20).

Novelis, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hindalco, reported a healthy Q4FY20 performance with adjusted EBITDA/tonne at US$436/tonne (higher than our estimate of US$400/tonne). For Q4FY20, net sales were at US$2.7 billion, down 12% YoY on account of lower average LME aluminium prices and local market premiums. Flat rolled products shipments for Q4FY20 were at 811 KT (down 7% YoY but higher than our estimate of 775 KT). EBITDA increased 7% YoY to US$383 million. The current quarter includes a cumulative positive impact of US$29 million from a contractual customer...

Novelis: Novelis delivered yet another record quarterly performance for Q4FY20, driven by portfolio optimization efforts and better cost efficiencies coupled with favourable demand for lightweight, sustainable aluminium solutions across end-markets. Novelis recorded its highestever quarterly adjusted EBITDA of US$383 million, a growth of 7% over the prior year. Q4FY20 Adjusted EBITDA per ton touched a record high of US$472, up 15% year-on-year. Novelis reported a Net Income (excluding tax-effected special items) of US$153 million in Q4FY20, an increase of 18% over Q4FY19. Revenue was down 12% year-on-year at US$2.7 billion in Q4FY20, mainly driven by lower average global aluminium prices and local market premiums....