Hero MotoCorp Ltd. share price target

FY18 was a robust year for domestic 2-W industry and HMCL, in particular, with the company seeing a volume growth of 14% YoY. FY19, however, was challenging, with mere 3% volume growth primarily tracking an increase in cost of ownership due to increase in fuel, insurance and financing costs, which coincided with the high sales festive period i.e. Dussehra-Diwali. Going forward, with system inventory still higher than the normal range and muted demand prospects, we expect HMCL to clock volume growth of 6% in FY20E. It is expected to be supported by pre-buying ahead of BS-VI launch...

Yes Bank (YES) saw a dismal Q4FY19, posting its first-ever quarterly loss of Rs 15bn as the new leadership prudently built in a 20% contingent provision on Rs 100bn of potentially stressed exposure. Guidance disappointed as YES now expects to (a) attain 1% ROA in three years, (b) post lower long-term growth of 20-22%, and (c) incur credit costs of 125bps in FY20. We pare FY20E/FY21E earnings by ~40% on elevated provisions, higher opex and...

via the launches of Destini and Maestro Edge, as we see industry wide shift from 110cc to 125cc on the scooters. In this way, we believe that despite competition from Bajaj Auto, the company will be able to maintain its overall market share at 50%. On BS6 pre-buy, HMCL indicated that there would be a meaningful incentive for customers to buy a BS4 product over a BS6 product. Prima facie it looks...

During Q4FY19, HMCL's sales declined by 7.9% YoY to Rs78.9bn (our Estimates Rs77.4bn). Its EBITDA margins contracted by 244bps YoY to 13.6% (Our estimates 13.9%).

Amidst a challenging demand environment and rising competition (particularly from Bajaj), Hero has defended market share due to its brand franchise. Further, management is upping the ante in the premium segment with multiple product launches. The stock is trading at attractive valuations of 14.5x on FY20E estimates and it offers a dividend yield of ~3.3%. The company continues to enjoy healthy return ratios (with ROE's in excess of 20%). We re-iterate our BUY rating on the stock. Heros 4Q results were inline with estimates at the operating level the EBITDA came in at Rs 10.7bn, with a reported margin of 13.6%. Higher tax led to a PAT miss(-25% YoY, -5% QoQ). With a full year dividend of Rs 87 (~3.3% yield) and steady market share, our BUY stands. Our TP is Rs 3,080 (at 16x FY21E EPS), with estimates falling by ~4%.

industry contract significantly in the face of external factors. For this quarter, Hero MotoCorp corresponding quarter FY'18). The EBIDTA margin for the quarter stood at 13.6%. The current fiscal (FY 2020) is expected to be yet another challenging year in view of the...

Industry woes to continue due to higher inventory levels and weak sentiment; Hero expects flat sales in H1FY2020: The twowheeler (2W) industry's growth declined sharply in H2FY2019, as increased insurance cost, liquidity financing crunch and slowing economic growth dented sales. From double-digit growth in H1FY2019, the 2W industry posted flat sales in H2FY2019. With uncertainty before general...

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. (Formerly Hero Honda Motors Ltd.) is the world's largest manufacturer of two wheelers based in India and also 'World No.1' Twowheeler Company in terms of unit volume sales in a calendar year. It has a total market share of 36% in 2wheeler industry and 50% market share in Motorcycles category. It has 4 globally benchmarked manufacturing facilities; two of these are based at Gurgaon and Dharuhera which are located in the state of Haryana in Northern India. The third manufacturing plant is based at Haridwar, in the hill state of Uttrakhand; the latest...

Maintain BUY with a reduced TP of Rs 3350(16x Dec-20E EPS) Hero Motocorps (HMCL) 3QFY19 numbers were broadly in line with estimates. Net revenue at Rs 78.6bn(+7.7% YoY) was led by 5.3% volume growth. EBITDA fell 5% YoY to Rs 11bn as margins came inline with estimates at 14% (-180bps YoY/112 bps QoQ). Margins were impacted due to input cost pressures. APAT stood at Rs. 7.7bn (-4%) YoY. We expect 4Q retails to be higher, led by marriage season demand (there are significantly more auspicious marriage days in 2019 as compared to 2018) and recovery in rural markets (aided by the budget stimulus.). Thus, we expect sales to grow in high single digit in FY20.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) reported a mixed Q3FY19 performance Total 2-W sales volume for the quarter came in at 18.0 lakh units, up 5.3% YoY. Scooter sales volume was at 1.8 lakh units, down 18.4% YoY. Motorcycle sales volume was at 16.2 lakh units, up 8.8% YoY Consequent net sales were at | 7,865 crore, up 7.7% YoY, with blended realisations (ASP) for the quarter amounting to | 43,720/unit vs. | 42,600/unit in Q2FY19 and | 42,745/unit in Q3FY18...