Music Broadcast Ltd. share price target

Lower revenue weighs down EBITDA and PAT: Revenue decline of 8% YoY to INR698m (15% below est.) was a first in many quarters. Delayed national campaigns, decreasing low-yield local ads, and muted government/political advertisements led the revenue decline. Yield rose 4% in the top-12 markets. EBITDA declined 21% YoY to INR205m (22% miss) on pre Ind-AS 116 basis (EBITDA was INR18m on reported basis, down 14% YoY). EBITDA margins were down 500bp to 29.4%, (260bp miss), as opex remained flat QoQ. Subsequently, PAT declined 36% YoY to INR87m on pre Ind-AS 116...

We like MBL owing to its superior execution, capital allocation, return ratios and cash flows. Acquisition of Big FM has the potential to add feather in the cap. Music Broadcast (MBLs) 4QFY19 was in-line. Key highlight is MBLs audacious acquisition of Reliance Broadcast Network (RBNLs) for Rs 10.5bn viz. 12.3x FY19E EBITDA. The multiple is in-line with MBLs current valuation; fair in our view. MBLs current EV is Rs 14bn (Mcap Rs 16.2bn). It would tantamount to acquisition of RBNLs brand Big FMs 40 radio stations vs. 39 of MBL. We foresee the acquisition to be positive from both strategic and financial perspective. It could potentially boost MBLs EPS by -4/+25/+46% in FY21/22/23E. We arent building the upside from acquisition. BUY with a TP of Rs 78 (25x FY21E FCFE).

EBITDA growth and partly offset by higher taxes. For FY19, revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 9%/17%/19% YoY. Concall highlights: (1) Opportunity from the MBL-RBNL deal is not in crossselling' to advertisers, but in increasing utilization for RBNL acquisition (currently at 50-60%). (2) Cost synergies to be in the range of 2-3% of revenue. (3) Dividend policy will not change due to the acquisition. Moderation in revenue yet strong growth: Given the moderation in revenue growth seen in the last two years, we have reduced our revenue estimates by 2-3%. Yet, the inherent operating leverage should ensure steady PAT CAGR of...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Music Broadcast Ltd board in its meeting on 31st Dec 2018 approved subdivision of equity shares. The Board approved the sub-division of equity shares of face value of | 10 each into five equity shares of face value | 2 each fully paid. The record date for the same is February 21, 2019 while the ex-date for the same is today i.e. February 20, 2019. Consequently, Music Broadcast's share price, as per yesterday's closing price, has adjusted to | 55.6/ share from | 278/share. Currently, the stock is trading at | 59/share. Our target price has also been revised to...

Reiterate BUY with a revised TP of Rs 402 (25x Dec-20E FCFE/sh). Music Broadcast Ltds (MBL) 3QFY19 revenue /EBITDA/PAT grew by 14/22.6/38% YoY on a low base, in-line with our estimates. The growth recovery was driven by 11% rate hike in the legacy markets, festive advertising and contribution from the Govt, E-Com & Auto sectors. Revenue growth guidance of 12-14% remains intact on the back of recovering economy and political spends.

Music Broadcast Ltd (MBL) reported healthy performance with revenues increasing 14.2% YoY to Rs870mn (PLe of Rs853 mn) due to rising inventory utilization in batch 1 stations (45% in 1QFY19, 50% in 2QFY19 and 53% in 3QFY19) and price hike of 11% taken in top 12 markets during the quarter. EBITDA margin expanded 230 bps YoY to 32.9% due to incremental...

EBITDA came in at | 28.6 crore (margin of 32.9%, slightly higher than estimates of 32%), up 22.6% YoY, better than our estimate of | 27.6 crore, owing to healthy revenue growth and lower-than-expected employee expenses. EBITDA margins for new stations were at 8%, while that of 28 stations were at 38% The company reported a profit of | 16.4 crore, above our estimate of | 15.4 crore, owing to a healthy performance at the EBITDA level Election related tailwinds to boost FY20E ad growth...

For 2QFY2019, Music Broadcast (MBL) posted muted results both on top-line and bottom-line fronts. Revenues grew by ~5% yoy to `80cr on the back of equal contribution of volume and price hike. The companys operating margins improved by robust 120bps yoy. On the bottom-line front, MBL reported lower growth of ~5% yoy to`13cr on the back of..

Reiterate BUY with TP of Rs 387 (25x Sep-20E FCFE/sh). Music Broadcast Limited (MBL) 2QFY19 results were in-line but weak. Revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew by 5.7/9.7/5.1% YoY. PAT lagged EBITDA owing to higher tax expense (39% of PBT). Hope pinned on sharp revival in 2HFY19 led by festive season and elections. Mgmt reiterates its 12-14% YoY revenue growth guidance (1HFY19 7%).

Below par revenue growth; positive surprise on margin; Maintain BUY MBL reports revenue growth of 5.7% YoY led by rate hike in all 12 core stations and improving utilization in Legacy Markets & Phase III markets. EBITDA margin improved 120bps YoY to 33.2% as Yield & inventory improvement translating into operating leverage. In terms of operating efficiencies, margin for MBL continues to report a positive surprise led by traction in the new stations due to improved profitability. We maintain our BUY rating with a revised Sep'19 TP of ` 400 (` 450 earlier) based on 15x...