The company indicated that MIB has still not approved the Big FM acquisition and the long stop date has expired, implying that the deal is off the table. They also indicated that post Covid-19, the valuations metrics have...

Operating cost optimized to Rs100-110mn per month during lockdown. Prelockdown monthly run-rate was Rs160-170mn. We cut our EBITDA estimates by 79%/29% for FY21/FY22 respectively as 1) we expect inventory utilization for 28 legacy/11 batch 1 stations to be at 36%/30% in FY21 and 55%/40% in FY22 respectively since COVID-19 is expected to have an adverse impact on the overall demand environment...

We interacted with Music Broadcast (MBL) to gauge the ramifications of Covid-19. MBL witnessed a steep fall in revenues amid the lockdown as ad volumes have dried up both from corporates and government barring few state governments' social message-based ads amid Covid-19 outbreak. We note that MBL already had a distressing year with 9MFY20 revenues and EBITDA decline of 17.8% YoY and 23.1% YoY, respectively, impacted by a steep decline in government as well as other major categories. On the positive side, a third party survey, however, has indicated that daily...

Steep decline in government category leads to revenues drop The company has alluded to weak economic growth for its revenue decline and the same was seen across media segments. Ad volumes were down 20% while realisation were up 3% in 9MFY20. The higher realisations, in our view, are merely owing to a steeper decline in the government category, which are lower yielding. The company indicated that given fiscal stretch, central government category remained muted while non-government ad category has not shown a major improvement in festivities apart from auto...

We cut our PAT estimates by 37.4%/23.4% for FY20E/21E as 1) national advertisers continue to remain apprehensive due to weak macro-economic environment 2) government, the largest category, is witnessing unprecedented cut/delay in ad spends with no signs of revival at least in the near term and 3) there was no visible uptick in ad volumes in the festive season that just culminated. In the top 15 markets, all categories except for auto and finance have reported a de-growth in ad volumes during 1HFY20. Despite such challenging environment RADIOCIT IN maintained its share of...

Music Broadcast (MBL) reported a weak set of numbers impacted by a steep decline in government & event segment. Revenues came in | 62.5 crore (decline of 22.5% YoY), much below our estimate of 10% decline as government and radio led events witnessed a steep decline of ~55% while non-government segment declined 6%. EBITDA came in at | 18.5 crore, down 30% YoY, with margin of 29.6%, down 350 bps, due to lower revenues. PBT at | 12.2 crore, witnessed a steep decline of 45% YoY. However, it reported profit of | 18.5 crore vs. our expectation of | 11.2 crore,...

Revenues came in at | 69.8 crore (decline of 7.8% YoY), lower than our expectation of 1% YoY growth at | 76.5 crore. The underperformance was on account of the company's emphasis on yield improvement (they reported 4% yield improvement). Subsequently, the company let go a few low cost opportunities, which resulted in ~12% volume decline for the quarter. EBITDA for the quarter came in at | 22.4 crore (vs. our expectation of | 25.3 crore) on account of negative operating leverage while margins came in at 32.1%, lower than our expectation of 33%. PAT came in at | 8.4 crore (vs....

Lower revenue weighs down EBITDA and PAT: Revenue decline of 8% YoY to INR698m (15% below est.) was a first in many quarters. Delayed national campaigns, decreasing low-yield local ads, and muted government/political advertisements led the revenue decline. Yield rose 4% in the top-12 markets. EBITDA declined 21% YoY to INR205m (22% miss) on pre Ind-AS 116 basis (EBITDA was INR18m on reported basis, down 14% YoY). EBITDA margins were down 500bp to 29.4%, (260bp miss), as opex remained flat QoQ. Subsequently, PAT declined 36% YoY to INR87m on pre Ind-AS 116...

We like MBL owing to its superior execution, capital allocation, return ratios and cash flows. Acquisition of Big FM has the potential to add feather in the cap. Music Broadcast (MBLs) 4QFY19 was in-line. Key highlight is MBLs audacious acquisition of Reliance Broadcast Network (RBNLs) for Rs 10.5bn viz. 12.3x FY19E EBITDA. The multiple is in-line with MBLs current valuation; fair in our view. MBLs current EV is Rs 14bn (Mcap Rs 16.2bn). It would tantamount to acquisition of RBNLs brand Big FMs 40 radio stations vs. 39 of MBL. We foresee the acquisition to be positive from both strategic and financial perspective. It could potentially boost MBLs EPS by -4/+25/+46% in FY21/22/23E. We arent building the upside from acquisition. BUY with a TP of Rs 78 (25x FY21E FCFE).

EBITDA growth and partly offset by higher taxes. For FY19, revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 9%/17%/19% YoY. Concall highlights: (1) Opportunity from the MBL-RBNL deal is not in crossselling' to advertisers, but in increasing utilization for RBNL acquisition (currently at 50-60%). (2) Cost synergies to be in the range of 2-3% of revenue. (3) Dividend policy will not change due to the acquisition. Moderation in revenue yet strong growth: Given the moderation in revenue growth seen in the last two years, we have reduced our revenue estimates by 2-3%. Yet, the inherent operating leverage should ensure steady PAT CAGR of...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Music Broadcast Ltd board in its meeting on 31st Dec 2018 approved subdivision of equity shares. The Board approved the sub-division of equity shares of face value of | 10 each into five equity shares of face value | 2 each fully paid. The record date for the same is February 21, 2019 while the ex-date for the same is today i.e. February 20, 2019. Consequently, Music Broadcast's share price, as per yesterday's closing price, has adjusted to | 55.6/ share from | 278/share. Currently, the stock is trading at | 59/share. Our target price has also been revised to...

Reiterate BUY with a revised TP of Rs 402 (25x Dec-20E FCFE/sh). Music Broadcast Ltds (MBL) 3QFY19 revenue /EBITDA/PAT grew by 14/22.6/38% YoY on a low base, in-line with our estimates. The growth recovery was driven by 11% rate hike in the legacy markets, festive advertising and contribution from the Govt, E-Com & Auto sectors. Revenue growth guidance of 12-14% remains intact on the back of recovering economy and political spends.

EBITDA came in at | 28.6 crore (margin of 32.9%, slightly higher than estimates of 32%), up 22.6% YoY, better than our estimate of | 27.6 crore, owing to healthy revenue growth and lower-than-expected employee expenses. EBITDA margins for new stations were at 8%, while that of 28 stations were at 38% The company reported a profit of | 16.4 crore, above our estimate of | 15.4 crore, owing to a healthy performance at the EBITDA level Election related tailwinds to boost FY20E ad growth...

Music Broadcast Ltd (MBL) reported healthy performance with revenues increasing 14.2% YoY to Rs870mn (PLe of Rs853 mn) due to rising inventory utilization in batch 1 stations (45% in 1QFY19, 50% in 2QFY19 and 53% in 3QFY19) and price hike of 11% taken in top 12 markets during the quarter. EBITDA margin expanded 230 bps YoY to 32.9% due to incremental...

For 2QFY2019, Music Broadcast (MBL) posted muted results both on top-line and bottom-line fronts. Revenues grew by ~5% yoy to `80cr on the back of equal contribution of volume and price hike. The companys operating margins improved by robust 120bps yoy. On the bottom-line front, MBL reported lower growth of ~5% yoy to`13cr on the back of..

Reiterate BUY with TP of Rs 387 (25x Sep-20E FCFE/sh). Music Broadcast Limited (MBL) 2QFY19 results were in-line but weak. Revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew by 5.7/9.7/5.1% YoY. PAT lagged EBITDA owing to higher tax expense (39% of PBT). Hope pinned on sharp revival in 2HFY19 led by festive season and elections. Mgmt reiterates its 12-14% YoY revenue growth guidance (1HFY19 7%).

Revenue grew 6% YoY (6% QoQ; 3% miss) to INR801m primarily due to the festive season shifting to 3QFY19 and on sluggish retail advertiser spends. Both volume and yield improvement contributed equally to the overall growth. Higher contribution from new stations aided healthy 10% YoY growth in overall EBITDA to INR266m (in- 26 October 2018 line). Yet, PAT at INR134m grew by 5% YoY (in-line) at a slower pace than EBITDA growth due to high tax expenses. PAT grew 7%/13%/14% YoY in 1HFY19. Revenue contribution from new stations saw an uptick to 10% (INR80m, +66% YoY). (1) Shifting of festive season to 2H and boost from pre- election spends should drive mid-teens growth in 2HFY19, (2) maintain 12- 14% revenue growth guidance in FY19, outperforming radio industry (8-10%) growth, (3) expect Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB) approval for acquisition of Friends 91.9 FM radio station by 3QFY19.

Below par revenue growth; positive surprise on margin; Maintain BUY MBL reports revenue growth of 5.7% YoY led by rate hike in all 12 core stations and improving utilization in Legacy Markets & Phase III markets. EBITDA margin improved 120bps YoY to 33.2% as Yield & inventory improvement translating into operating leverage. In terms of operating efficiencies, margin for MBL continues to report a positive surprise led by traction in the new stations due to improved profitability. We maintain our BUY rating with a revised Sep'19 TP of ` 400 (` 450 earlier) based on 15x...

stations and price hike of 8% taken in the top 12 markets during the previous quarter. EBITDA margin expanded 120 bps YoY to 33.1% due to incremental contribution coming in from batch 1 stations that broke even in 4QFY18 and operating leverage benefits that started kicking in with improving utilization. PAT growth was muted at 8.5% YoY (inclusive of OCI), despite operating margin expansion due to higher tax rate of 39.4% resulting from redemption of long term investments (attracts higher tax) to fund the buy back. Management maintains revenue growth guidance of 12-14% and expects...

As per management, the current low growth is largely due to weak retail/local, real estate and government advertisements, which is witnessing slow recovery post demonetization/GST. Management also reaffirmed that over the next three years, company should grow revenues at 13-15 % CAGR and PAT at 20-25 % led by steep operating leverage coming from 90 % fixed cost.b.)TV players have seen swift recovery from demonetization/GST due to FMCG companies, which contribute less than 10 % to the radio sector v/s over 50 % for the TV industry. However, radio has not lost its sheen in India where listenership remains steady at 54mins for 5.1days/week-radio is viable for advertisers due to its reach and also because it's a cost efficient medium.