Avenue Supermarts Ltd. share price target

Author: Vincent K A - Sr. Research Analyst improving the white label product mix, will reduce margin pressure in the future. We a target price of Rs.4,657 by valuing it on a DCF basis, implies 74x on FY27 EPS....

With an 18% upside from the CMP, we maintain a BUY rating on the stock.

GM&A share at 24.7% for 1QFY26 up by 210bps vs 22.26% in FY25 We cut our FY26/FY27 EPS estimates by 1.0%/1.9%, respectively, as we expect margin pressures to persist due to 1) Continued high competitive intensity...

With a 17% upside from the CMP, we maintain a BUY rating on the stock.

Avenue Supermarts (DMART) posted weak results in 4QFY25 as standalone EBITDA inched up 4% YoY (9% miss) due to weaker gross margin (GM; -25bp YoY) and higher cost of retailing (CoR; opex up 12% YoY on a per sqft basis).

GM&A share at 22.6% for FY25 down by 40bps vs 23% in 9MFY25 We cut FY26/FY27 EPS estimates by 2.4/1.6% (earlier est lower by 11/14% than consensus) as we expect margin pressure to continue due to 1) sustained high competitive intensity led by consumer shift to Ecom/QC 2) accelerated store openings in a scenario of subdued demand, softer GM, higher spending on consumer service and rising store level/gig worker wages in metros. D'Mart 4Q results missed estimates as fierce competitive intensity impacted Gross...

Rs60-80bn fund infusion in FY26 given limited cash in balance sheet and long gestation of setting up stores (Land, building etc over 2.5 years). We cut EPS by 0.7/6.1/7.1% for FY25/26/27. We have DCF based target price of Rs3942 (Rs3958 earlier). However, the stock at 76xFY27EPS with 14% EPS CAGR over FY25-27, leaves little room for further re-rating. Retain Hold openings in 4Q25 to 28 stores taking the total addition to 50 stores, highest store...

Maintain Contra Sell

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with the revised TP to Rs 4,000/share. The TP implies an 8% upside from the CMP.

Avenue Supermarts (DMART) posted weak results in 3QFY25 as standalone EBITDA grew 10% YoY (4% miss) due to weaker gross margin and higher cost of retailing (CoR).

Quick commerce comes to bite

Accelerated ramp-up of online grocery formats (quick commerce) in large metro cities led to deceleration of key growth metrics for DMART: 1) lowest revenue growth (+14% YoY) in a quarter ever

We recommend a wait-and-watch approach as we look for more sustained improvement in the store matrix and demand recovery triggers. Hence we maintain a HOLD rating on the stock.