TCI Express Ltd. share price target

We cut our EPS estimates by 14%/9% for FY26E/FY27E amid persistent volume growth challenges and pricing pressure. TCIEXP IN reported weak set of results as revenues declined 2.1% YoY to Rs2,868mn (PLe Rs2,950mn) with an EBITDA margin of 9.8% (PLe 11.4%) as volumes declined for 7th quarter in a row to 233,000 MT (auto was the key segment facing challenges this time). Pricing pressure was also evident as realization was down 1.3% YoY to Rs12.3 per KG. Given stiff competition, we expect volume and realization CAGR of 4%/1% over...

TCI Express’ (TCIE) Q1FY26 EBITDA was slightly below consensus estimates. Volume fell 0.9% YoY to 233kte
(235kte in Q1FY25) on subdued demand. EBITDA margin improved QoQ to 9.8% (vs. 8.5% in Q4FY25 and 11.2% in Q1FY25), mainly on account of 75bps price hike and stable variable costs in Q1.

TCI Express (TCIE)’s Q1FY26 results were in line with our muted expectations. The company’s efforts to diversify business beyond surface express seem to be fructifying, as international air express/C2C segments registered 33%/14% YoY growth, respectively.

TCI Express’s (TCIE) 1QFY26 revenue declined 2% YoY to INR2.9b (-7% QoQ), 9% below our estimate. Volumes declined ~1% YoY in 1QFY25, impacted by slower growth in the SME segment.

Revenue declined by 3.0% YoY: Revenue decreased by 3.0% YoY to Rs3,075mn (PLe Rs3,033mn) on account of lower volumes. Gross margin declined to 28.3% Rs341mn) on account of higher operational expenses like toll tax and labor cost....

TCI Express (TCIE)’s 4QFY25 revenue decreased 3% YoY to INR3.1b (+4% QoQ), in line with our estimate. Volumes declined 1% YoY in 4QFY25. Volumes were hit by slower growth in the SME segment.

TCI Express’ (TCIE) Q3FY25 EBITDA of INR 289mn was 22.9% below our estimates. Volume declined 3.2% YoY due to subdued demand. EBITDA margin slipped to 9.8% (lowest since Q2FY21) on account of a volume dip, higher operating costs and unabsorbed fixed cost.

TCI Express (TCIE)’s 3QFY25 revenue decreased 5% YoY to ~INR3b (10% below our estimate), while volumes declined 3% YoY. Volumes were hit by slower growth in the manufacturing, automobiles, and consumer durables sectors.

We retain a Buy with a revised PT of Rs. 1,250, factoring in a downward revision of estimates and expecting a revival in growth from FY2026.

TCI Express (TCIE) Q1FY25 EBITDA was significantly below our/consensus estimates, mainly on account of underutilised capacity, higher operating cost and unabsorbed fixed cost.

We retain a Buy on TCI Express with a revised PT of Rs. 1,350, factoring in a downward revision of
estimates and expecting a revival in growth from H2FY2025.

TCI Express (TCIE)’s 1QFY25 revenue decreased 4% YoY to ~INR2.9b (7% below our estimate), while volumes declined 2% YoY. Volumes were temporarily hit by the general elections.

TCI Express (TCIE)’s Q2FY24 EBITDA was in line with our estimates but missed street’s estimates by 5.2%. Key points: 1) EBITDA margin expanded by 55bps QoQ due to improved utilisation levels, price hike and additional contribution from non-surface business. 2) Volume was up a mere 2% YoY/ 5% QoQ owing to lower traction in lifestyle and consumer durables segments. 3) 12 new branches were added in H1FY24.

TCI Express’ (TCIE) Q1FY24 EBITDA performance missed our and street’s estimates by 3% and 12%, respectively. Key points: 1) EBITDA margin recovered by 50bps YoY due to a combination of sorting centre efficiencies, price hike and better fill factor; 2) volume was up 4.3% YoY despite a challenging macro environment; 3) revenue share of other services rose to 17% (Q1FY23: 15%); and 4) focus remains on pursuing profitability than just growth.