Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd. share price target

Maintain BUY with revised TP of Rs 946 @ 22x Sep-20E EPS Gulf Oil Lubricants (Gulf Oil) 2QFY19 was healthy on operational front. This was led by robust volume growth of 22% (30% including one-off low-margin orders from govt. agencies). Revenue grew by 29%, EBITDA 15% and APAT 13%. RPAT was flat as included Rs 80mn forex loss impact in interest costs.

Volume growth in Q2FY19 was at 30% YoY (core volume growth:22%), above our estimate of 13% YoY. EBITDA/litre was at | 24 per litre (Q2FY18: | 27 per litre) marginally above our estimate of | 23.6/litre. Subsequently, EBITDA during the quarter increased 15.4% YoY to | 71.4 crore, above our estimate of | 61.3 crore PAT remained flattish at | 40.3 crore (our estimate: | 38.3 crore). PAT growth was lower in comparison to EBITDA growth mainly on account of higher interest costs (due to forex losses)...

GOLIL delivered a healthy volume growth of 33% for Q1FY19 driven by strong growth across all segments and channel sales. We expect this sale to stabilize and retail channel to grow faster than B2B channel in FY19. Raw material prices are now stable, however, GOLIL has taken a price hike in July 2018 to protect margins. Volume growth of GOLIL would be around 3x of industry average. This growth would be driven by the new product launches, expansion of distribution channels and focus on gaining more OEM tie-ups. Improvement in the working...

Maintain BUY with TP of Rs 1,027 @ 25x FY20E EPS. Gulf Oil Lubricants (Gulf Oil) 1QFY19 was healthy led by 33% YoY volume growth. Revenue at Rs 3.9bn in 1QFY19 grew by 39.4%. Gross margin declined by 136bps YoY to 46%. EBITDA grew by 31% to Rs 645mn. PAT at Rs 400mn was up by 17%. PAT lagged EBITDA on account of commissioning of Chennai plant and forex loss of Rs 20mn.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gulf Oil Lubricant's (GOL's) Q1FY18 numbers were above our estimates driven by higher-than-expected YoY volume growth....

GOLIL delivered a healthy volume growth of 19.5% for Q4FY18 driven by strong B2B sales. We expect this sale to stabilize and retail channel to grow faster than B2B channel in FY19. Raw material prices can increase, however, GOLIL can pass on any increase and protect margins. Volume growth of GOLIL would be around 3x of industry average, achieved by distribution expansion and increasing product portfolio. This growth would be driven by the new product launches, expansion of distribution channels and focus on gaining more OEM tieups. Improvement in the working capital cycle further improves the...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gulf Oil Lubricant's Q4FY18 numbers were above our estimates driven by higher-than-expected YoY volume growth. Revenues...

Established in 1995 over a 7.5-acre plot, the capacity of the plant has been increased from 75,000kl to 90,000kl, based on two shifts. The plant can be run on three shifts as well if there is commensurate demand. The company even has a blow molding facility of 3,000mtpa. The plant helps in ~20% reduction in cost of bottles through optimum usage of plastics in addition to better quality control in bottling vis--vis outsourcing....

Q3 volume grew 22% YoY to ~24.4 mn litre (+8% QoQ) on strong growth in personal mobility and recovery in diesel engine oil segment. EBITDA margin (at 17%) at Rs 25.3/ltr (FY17: Rs 21.2/ltr) was lower QoQ as product mix deteriorated (but was still up 24% YoY).