Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd. share price target

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gulf Oil Lubricant's (GOL's) Q1FY18 numbers were above our estimates driven by higher-than-expected YoY volume growth....

GOLIL delivered a healthy volume growth of 19.5% for Q4FY18 driven by strong B2B sales. We expect this sale to stabilize and retail channel to grow faster than B2B channel in FY19. Raw material prices can increase, however, GOLIL can pass on any increase and protect margins. Volume growth of GOLIL would be around 3x of industry average, achieved by distribution expansion and increasing product portfolio. This growth would be driven by the new product launches, expansion of distribution channels and focus on gaining more OEM tieups. Improvement in the working capital cycle further improves the...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gulf Oil Lubricant's Q4FY18 numbers were above our estimates driven by higher-than-expected YoY volume growth. Revenues...

Established in 1995 over a 7.5-acre plot, the capacity of the plant has been increased from 75,000kl to 90,000kl, based on two shifts. The plant can be run on three shifts as well if there is commensurate demand. The company even has a blow molding facility of 3,000mtpa. The plant helps in ~20% reduction in cost of bottles through optimum usage of plastics in addition to better quality control in bottling vis--vis outsourcing....

Q3 volume grew 22% YoY to ~24.4 mn litre (+8% QoQ) on strong growth in personal mobility and recovery in diesel engine oil segment. EBITDA margin (at 17%) at Rs 25.3/ltr (FY17: Rs 21.2/ltr) was lower QoQ as product mix deteriorated (but was still up 24% YoY).

The quarter witnessed volume growth of 22% YoY to 24.4 million litres above our estimates of 22 million litres, driven by robust growth across all segments. EBITDA during the quarter increased 48.2% YoY to | 61.5 crore above our estimates of | 57.5 crore. The EBITDA per litre stood at | 25.2 per litre slightly below our estimates of | 26.1 per litre on account of higher other expenses Subsequently, PAT during the quarter increased 53.4% YoY to | 42.4 crore above our estimates of | 36.8 crore. The company also...

Q2FY18 volume grew 13% YoY at ~22.6 mn ltr, as volumes recovered from August/ September after implementation of GST (company has passed on full GST impact).

Gulf Oil Lubricants (GOL) reported its Q2FY18 numbers, which were above our estimates on all fronts driven by higher-than-expected volume growth. Revenues increased 17.8% YoY to | 322.9 crore in Q2FY18 above our estimate of | 300.3 crore The quarter witnessed volume growth of ~13% YoY to 22.5-23 million litre above our estimates of 21.9 million litre, overcoming the GST transition phase. EBITDA during the quarter increased 41.3% YoY to | 61.9 crore, above our estimate of | 49.6 crore. EBITDA per...

Consequently, we upgrade to BUY with a TP of Rs 936 (25x FY19 EPS). Gulf Oil Lubricants reported strong results in 2QFY18, largely driven by 13% volume and 8% realisations growth. The strengthening of the personal mobility segment and OEM tie-ups led to both volume and price growth.