Gujarat Gas Ltd. share price target

Gujarat Gas reported a disappointing set of numbers in Q2FY19. Revenues increased 41.2% YoY to | 1964.3 crore and came in above our estimates. Total reported volumes increased 16.5% YoY and came in at 6.7 mmscmd vs. our estimate of 6.5 mmscmd on account of higher sales volumes on the industrial PNG front Realisations were higher than our estimate at | 32/scm (our estimate: | 31.6/scm). However, sharp increase in gas costs due to increase in LNG prices and rupee depreciation led to decline in gross margins,...

Gujarat Gas volumes number were below our estimates. Growth in the commercial segment has been encouraging but has come at a cost of margin decline. Gujarat Gas was impacted by the sharp increase in the input cost mainly RLNG. Gas cost increased by 35.8% on a YoY basis. With prices on the higher side and ongoing festive season, Gujarat gas could not pass on completely the impact of increased input cost. Industrial segment (nearly 70% of volumes) is very price sensitive and creates lot of volatility on spreads. We believe that volume and spread balance will be the key for...

4 November 2018 GUJGA reported significantly lower EBITDA of INR1.6b (-21% YoY, -35% QoQ) compared to our estimate of INR2.4b, primarily due to its inability to pass on increased raw material cost to the consumers. PAT came in at INR411m (our EBITDA/scm declined sharply by 32% YoY (- 38% QoQ) to INR2.6, much below our estimate of INR4.0 due to lower pricing in the industrial segment. We model EBITDA/scm of INR3.3/4.1 for FY19/20. PNG industrial/commercial volumes stood at 4.7mmscmd (+18% YoY, +3% QoQ), while PNG household volumes were at 0.5mmscmd (+17% YoY, +28% QoQ). We have modeled PNG volumes of 4.8/5.3mmscmd for FY19/20.

Gujarat Gas reported a decent set of Q1FY19 numbers. Revenues increased 19.4% YoY to | 1765.1 crore, in line with our estimates. Although volumes at 6.4 mmscmd were slightly lower than our estimates of 6.6 mmscmd, realisations were above our estimates Realisations were higher than our estimates at | 30.1/scm (our estimate: | 29.5/scm). Gross margins were at | 7.1/scm (our...

Gujarat Gas reported a good set of numbers on the volume front while profitability was below estimates on account of higher tax rate and a lower-than-expected increase in gross margins. Revenues...

Gujarat Gas reported Q3FY18 results, which were largely in line with our estimates on the operational front. Revenues increased 27.7% YoY to | 1571.3 crore and came in above our estimate of | 1496.2 crore mainly on account of higher than estimates volumes Total reported volumes came in at 6.3 mmscmd vs. our estimate of 6 mmscmd due to higher industrial sales volumes. Gross margins at | 6/scm came in largely in line with our estimates of | 6.1/scm....

Gujarat Gas (GG) is one of India's largest player in the industrial gas segment and city gas distribution (CGD) with a dominant presence in Gujarat. It caters to the gas demand of ~3000 industrial consumers, ~5 lakh CNG vehicles and ~12 lakh households in Gujarat. Total volumes in FY17 were at 5.4 mmscmd with the industrial and retail segment contributing ~68% of total volumes. Gujarat Gas has been rapidly expanding its reach in Gujarat by way of securing licenses to expand its CGD network across five new areas, making it to 19 districts of Gujarat,...

Gujarat Gas announced its Q2FY18 results, which were below our estimates on both revenues and profitability front as a result of lower than estimated volumes. Revenues increased 12.5% YoY to | 1391 crore and came in below our estimates of | 1498.7 crore Total reported volumes came in at 5.7 mmscmd vs. our estimate of 6.1 mmscmd. Gross margins at | 6.7/scm came in below our estimates of | 7.3/scm on account of higher spot LNG prices. As a...

4.0mmscmd (+13% YoY, -9% QoQ), and PNG household volumes at 0.5mmscmd (+5% YoY, +4% QoQ). Sequential decline in volumes was led by non-inclusion of gas under GST, state bringing in a cut in VAT with a delay, and flooding-related shutdowns by consumers. According to management, the volumes lost have been made up for at the exit of the quarter. CNG volumes up 7% YoY: CNG volumes stood at 1.3mmscmd (+7% YoY, -1% QoQ). Unless CNG volumes become a larger contributor, the company would continue witnessing volatility in volumes and margins, in our view....