Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. share price target

Standalone business trading at FY24E P/B of 0.4x after adjusting for GUJGA stake at market value minus 30% holding discount

Gujarat State Petronet’s (GSPL) Q4FY23 performance improved somewhat from Q3FY23 levels, with EBITDA down 4% YoY (up 9% QoQ) to Rs2.95bn, and net earnings up 11% YoY to Rs2.2bn (I-Sec: Rs3.0bn EBITDA, Rs2bn PAT). The YoY dip in EBITDA was primarily due to 14% YoY (+12% QoQ) movement in transmission volumes to 25mmscmd, ahead of estimates of 24mmscmd, offset by 12% YoY improvement in blended tariffs (down 7% QoQ).

Gujarat State Petronet’s (GSPL) Q3FY23 performance remained weak, with EBITDA down 20% YoY (down 19% QoQ) to Rs2.7bn, and net earnings down 31% YoY to Rs1.7bn (I-Sec: Rs3.5bn EBITDA, Rs2.3bn PAT). The YoY dip in EBITDA was primarily due to 30% YoY (-9% QoQ) decline in transmission volumes to 22.3mmscmd, lowest in the past 17 quarters and below I-Sec estimate of 26mmscmd.

Gujarat State Petronet’s (GSPL) Q2FY23 performance was muted with EBITDA down 12% YoY (up 20% QoQ) to Rs4.4bn, and net earnings down 4% YoY at Rs3.1bn (I-Sec: Rs3.1bn EBITDA, Rs1.9bn PAT).

We met with the senior management of GSPL (Exec Director, gas business) for an update on business and the outlook ahead.

Gujarat State Petronet’s (GSPL) Q1FY23 performance was muted with EBITDA down 4% YoY (up 18% QoQ) to Rs3.6bn, and net earnings flat YoY at Rs2.35bn (I-Sec: Rs 3.1bn EBITDA, Rs 2bn PAT).