Graphite India Ltd. share price target

During the quarter ended September 2021 (Q3CY21), global steel production excluding China registered a strong increase of 15.3% YoY but was down 2.7% QoQ. Chinese steel production for the quarter declined 14.2% YoY and 16.6% QoQ, in line with their strategy to keep steel output at 2020 levels as a part of their goal to reduce carbon emissions. With the decline in steel production and exports from China, there may be a gradual increase in steel production from EAF steel producing countries, which augurs well for both graphite electrode demand and realisations...

Consolidated other income for the quarter was at | 78 crore, up 39% QoQ, 15% YoY, higher than our estimate of | 64 crore. Better than expected other income aided consolidated PAT during the quarter. Ensuing PAT during the quarter was at | 150 crore, up 134% QoQ (our estimate: | 149 crore). What should investors do? Graphite India's share price has grown by ~3.7x over...

Graphite India (GIL) reported an operationally healthy set of Q4FY21 numbers, especially for the standalone entity. For Q4FY21, standalone operations reported capacity utilisation of 85% compared to 78% in Q3FY21, 49% in Q4FY20. Standalone operations reported topline of | 563 crore, up 24% QoQ, 3% YoY. EBITDA of standalone operations was at | 128 crore, while adjusted standalone EBITDA (EBITDA excluding onetime income and expense) was at | 188 crore. Standalone PAT was at | 114 crore (up 356% YoY, 23% QoQ). For Q4FY21, consolidated operations reported capacity...

In line with global steel prices, domestic steel prices have witnessed strong traction over the last eight to nine months, registering a healthy increase in the aforementioned period. Currently, domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) prices (ex-Mumbai) are at | 57500/tonne, up 58% from July 2020 low of | 36500/tonne. Healthy demand both on the global as well as domestic front has aided steel prices to remain firm at higher levels. The strength in steel...

During the quarter, overall recovery in steel production led to a small-pickup in graphite electrodes demand. Going forward, steel industry production growth trend is likely to continue with a healthy recovery in major steel consuming industries like construction and automobiles. The domestic steel industry is also poised to grow with the recent announcement of increased government spending on infrastructure. The combination of these factors may drive demand for steel and graphite electrodes in the near term. Graphite electrode prices have started to stabilise and a positive recovery is likely in coming quarters. Needle coke prices have also stabilised and may...

On the back of a muted demand scenario, GIL reported a subdued operational performance for both standalone and consolidated operations. For H1FY21, on a standalone basis, topline fell 52%YoY to | 823 crore (| 1730 crore in H1FY20). It reported an EBITDA loss of | 107 crore. Standalone operations reported a net loss of | 8 crore in H1FY21 (PAT of | 362 crore in H1FY20). Similarly, on a consolidated basis, GIL's topline came in at | 894 crore (down 52% YoY, | 1849 crore in H1FY20). It reported consolidated EBITDA loss of | 209 crore. The ensuing consolidated net loss...

Graphite India (GIL) reported a subdued set of Q1FY21 numbers wherein it reported a consolidated loss at the EBITDA, PAT level. During the quarter, the performance was impacted by inventory write down taken by the company. For Q1FY21, GIL reported a consolidated topline of | 409 crore (down 58% YoY, 32% QoQ), compared to our estimate of | 335 crore. Better than expected topline was on account of higher-than-expected capacity utilisation. Consolidated capacity utilisation in Q1FY21 was at 36% (75% in Q1FY20, 41% in Q4FY20), higher than our estimate of 30%. Consolidated...

Revise down capacity utilisation estimates on subdued demand On account of subdued demand from the steel sector (especially in H1FY21), we downward revise our capacity utilisation estimates for FY21E. For FY21E, we model capacity utilisation of 53% for standalone operations (downward revise from 77.5% earlier) and 50% for consolidated operations (downward revise from 70% earlier). We also introduce FY22E capacity utilisation levels. For FY22E, we model standalone capacity utilisation at 65% and consolidated capacity utilisation at 60%....

Graphite India reported muted capacity utilisation levels for Q2FY20. For Q2FY20, consolidated utilisation level was at 61% while standalone utilisation was at 71%. Going forward, we expect utilisation to tread upwards from Q2FY20 levels. World Steel Association (WSA) has recently upward revised its forecasts for global steel demand. WSA now expected the global steel demand to reach 1775 million tonne (MT) in CY19, growth of 3.9% vs. earlier forecast of 1.3% growth or 1735 MT. For consolidated operations, we model capacity utilisation of 67.5% for FY20E and 70.0% for FY21E. For...

Graphite India reported a steady Q4FY19 performance wherein the topline came in broadly in line with our estimates while EBITDA and PAT came in higher than our estimate. On a consolidated basis, Graphite India reported capacity utilisation of 85% (80% in Q3FY19 and 91% in Q4FY18, in line with our estimate of 85%). The consolidated topline came in at | 1693 crore (down 8.7% QoQ, up 28.0% YoY, broadly in line with than our estimate: | 1677 crore). Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter was at | 864 crore (up 20% YoY, down 20% QoQ, higher than our estimate of | 778 crore). EBITDA...

9 February 2019 PHNXs revenues grew 6% YoY to INR4,404m (in line with our est. of INR4,409m), primarily driven by the Retail segment (+7% to INR2,899m). EBITDA margin expanded 90bp YoY to 50.5% (v/s our est. EBITDA stood at INR2,225m, as against our est. We note that other comprehensive income for 9MFY19 includes realized gain of INR622m (INR182m for 3QFY19) on sale of 0.8m equity shares (0.3m for the quarter) of Graphite India. Interest expense stood at INR917m (v/s our est. Consequently, PAT rose 9% YoY to INR708m, higher than our est.

For Q3FY19, Graphite India reported subdued results wherein topline, EBITDA and PAT came in below our estimate. The performance during the quarter was impacted by higher-than-expected operating costs (especially needle coke) and lower than expected volumes The company reported a consolidated topline of | 1855 crore (up 81% YoY, down 21% QoQ) lower than our estimate of | 1926.1 crore. Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter was at | 1083 crore (Q3FY18: | 543 crore, Q2FY19: | 1640 crore, our estimate: | 1193 crore). The...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research For Q2FY19, Graphite India reported an outperformance on all fronts. The company reported a consolidated topline of | 2345 crore (up 344% YoY, 19.3% QoQ) higher than our estimate of | 1990 crore Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter was at | 1640 crore (our estimate: | 1249 crore). EBITDA margin was at 69.9% (vs. Q2FY18: 27.3%, Q1FY19: 73.1%, our estimate: 62.8%). On a QoQ basis, raw material cost (as percentage of sales) increased to 18.1% from 14.8%...

According to media sources, officials from the Karnataka State Pollution Control Board (KSPCB) inspected two units of Graphite India (GIL) in Bengaluru. Prima facie, the team indicated the plant is not complying with the required air pollution norms. KSPCB is expected to submit a report on the same to the National Green Tribunal (NGT) in a week. Earlier, KSPCB in 2012 served the plant a closure notice on which the company got a stay from the appeals court. Following the stay, the residents approached the NGT where the case is currently pending....