Granules India Ltd. share price target

Granules (GIL) posted revenues of INR 8,883mn with 3.5% YoY growth, which was 5.2% above our estimate of INR 8,446mn. Revenue beat was mainly driven by new product launches and increased market share for existing products in the finished dosages (FD) segment. During Q2, FDs grew by 18% (YoY), PFIs grew by 10% (YoY), and API sales dropped by 25% (YoY). Gross margin contracted by 706bps on account of increase in KSM prices (mainly PAP and Acetic acid prices are up by 100%150%) and loss of MEIS benefit. However, EBITDA Margin witnessed a higher impact (decline of 1286bps to 17% in Q2FY22 ) due to lower profitability in Para products and higher logistic cost and R&D expenses (5.3% vs 2.6% in Q2FY21). The management expects to pass on some of the increases to their customers from Q3FY22 onwards. GIL reported a PAT of INR 807mn, which was below our estimate of INR 1237mn driven by weak operational performance. As per management, the...

We cut our EPS estimate for FY22E/FY23E by 23%/14%, factoring in a) prolonged concerns on escalated raw material prices, particularly for Paracetamol, and b) China-led supply disruptions resulting in higher logistic costs. We value GRAN at 13x 12M forward earnings to arrive at TP of INR330. Headwinds related to raw materials are expected to ease over the medium term, and GRAN continues its effort towards building the ANDA...

Granules continued its impressive performance in Q1FY22 with total revenues growing by 16% YoY to Rs.849cr despite the myriad of challenges posed by various business scenarios in the backdrop of covid and logistics disruptions. Strong revenue share from the existing molecules and a sizeable...

increase in KSM prices (mainly PAP) and loss of MEIS benefit (~150bps). Favourable forex and Air freight collected from customers was part of Sales which was added to Gross margin in Stock Q1FY21. However, EBITDA Margin managed lesser impact (decline of 126bps to 23.7% in Q1FY22 ) CMP (INR) due to lower other expenses (-4%YoY). GIL reported a PAT of INR 1202mn, which was above our Target Price (INR) estimate of INR 1018mn driven by ordinary operational performance. As per management, the KSM BSE code supply situation is likely to improve with an increase in the number of domestic suppliers and the recommencement of supply from the Chinese source. The management has stated that it is looking to decrease the share of core molecules from 84% currently to 60% by FY25 with focusing on launching higher-margin products across different geographies....

Granules India (GRAN) delivered a better-than-expected 1QFY22 performance, led by better off-take in the Intermediates (PFI) and Finished Dosage (FD) segments. The impact of the sharp rise in key starting materials (KSM) for Paracetamol was offset by controlled opex, driving better-thanexpected profitability during the quarter. The improved availability of KSMs and new launches would further enhance the performance going forward. We marginally tweak our EPS estimate for FY22/FY23E, factoring in a) the easing of the supply situation for KSMs and b) higher logistic costs. We continue to value GRAN at 15x 12M forward earnings to arrive at TP of...

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revenues growing by 33% YoY to Rs.799cr in Q4FY21. All segments saw strong growth mainly on the back of of successful new launches, increase in market share of finished dosages, as well as customer additions for APIs and PFIs. Disruption in supply of key raw materials from China will impact operating performance in the short term The company has guided a Capex of ~Rs.1,000cr over the next 3 years as it looks to expand capacities for its key products...

GRAN delivered an in line performance in 4Q and posted its highest ever sales/EBITDA/PAT on an annual basis in FY21. This was largely led by strong traction in ingredients (PFIs) and formulations (FDs). While the company is on track to expand capacity/develop products, a sharp increase in prices of select key starting materials (KSM) may hinder its near-term performance. We lower our FY22E/FY23E EPS estimate by 11%/10% to factor in a price increase/reduced availability of KSM like para-aminophenol (PAP)/acetic anhydride and lower operating leverage. We value GRAN at 15x 12-months...

Healthy Q4; Input cost increase to dent margin in the near term Granules (GIL) posted revenues of INR 7993mn with 33.2% YoY growth, which was 3.7% above our estimate of INR 7710mn. Revenue growth was mainly driven by an increase in the market share of existing products, new customer additions in the API segment and increasing penetration of PFIs as a category. During Q4, FDs grew by 34% (YoY), PFIs grew by 85% (YoY) and API sales were up by 9%(YoY). Better realisations across our existing molecules and new launches contributed to the increase in gross margins by 378bps (YoY). Subsequently, the EBITDA margin expanded by 861bps to a 25.3% level was 167bps higher than our estimate. EBITDA Margin improvement was mainly on account of higher sales and volumes over a lower base of the previous year. The low base of the previous year was...

Revenues grew 20% YoY to | 845 crore driven by new launches and higher market share of existing products across segments. Formulations grew 11% YoY to | 422 crore, API grew 20% to | 252 crore and PFI grew 48% to | 171 crore. EBITDA margins improved 187 bps YoY to 25.1% due to change in product mix and higher operational efficiency. EBITDA grew 29.7% YoY to | 212 crore. Adjusted PAT grew 52.8% YoY to | 147 crore. Delta vis-a-vis EBITDA was due to higher other income (one-time | 13.4 crore stimulus...