Aegis Logistics Ltd. share price target

In 2QFY25, AEGIS reported EBITDA of INR2.2b (up 8% YoY), missing our estimate by 17% as normalized EBITDA of Liquid/Gas divisions came in19%/16% below our estimates.

Aegis Logistics (AGIS) reported EBITDA of INR3.1b in 4QFY24, 28% above our
estimates and up 51% YoY, mainly aided by strong EBIT growth of 105% YoY
for the liquids division.

Frontrunner in India's gas story

In-line results with improved earnings visibility

Record-high distribution volumes steal the show

Vopak deal in the bag, Kandla LPG commissioned

Signs of improvement as retail rebounds

The company recorded good traction from all three OMCs at its Mumbai and Pipavav LPG terminals. Additional jetty connectivity and construction are underway at Pipavav and Kandla terminals, with expected commissioning in Jun'22 and Sep'22, respectively. The company commissioned two bottling plants (at Tata and Jamnagar). It will be adding another at Pipavav in 4QFY22. It added two new stations in the Auto Gas segment and plans to add an additional 30 more stations (in the 14 states where they are present currently) over the next two years....

Aegis Logistics' Q2FY22 revenue from operations experienced a year-overyear year decline of 2.3% to Rs. 635.24 crs. Its gas segment raked in revenues of Rs. 570.92 crs witnessing a year-over-year year decline of almost 4%. Liquid...

Aegis Logistics' (AGIS) Q2FY22 performance was above expectations with revival in LPG volumes driven by opening-up of travel and eateries. PAT for the quarter came in at INR94cr.

Results in line, growth recovery expected from H2FY22

Vopak partnership offers multi-year growth visibility

AGIS has established a JV Aegis Vopak Terminals (AVTL). Both LPG and liquid storage terminals at Kandla and Pipavav, and liquid storage terminals at Mangalore, Kochi, and Haldia have been brought under AVTL. AGIS will hold 51% stake in AVTL,...

Aegis Logistics (AGIS) reported a miss on our estimates, primarily due to a drop in the Gas business, while the Liquids business performed robustly. The Gas Logistics business was impacted as AGIS reported a shift in BPCL volumes from its Haldia LPG terminal to its recently commissioned terminal. Aegis clocked higher movement of LPG wagons at its Pipavav railway gantry and signed BPCL as a second customer (apart from IOCL). The Mumbai LPG terminal is operating at the maximum level since Dec'20. The Liquids business saw margin expansion in 4Q with the handling of...

Gearing up for robust growth

While doing segment analysis, it is observed that the liquid division continued to perform strongly in the second quarter of FY21. Aegis had revenues for the division of Rs 56.44 crs in Q2 versus Rs 50.02 crs a year earlier, a rise of nearly13% year-on-year and EBITDA for Q2 was Rs 39.5 crs versus Rs 32.8 crs a year earlier, a rise of over 20% year on-year. year. Since the liquid division relies largely on storage based revenues, it was little affected by the ongoing...

23 July 2020 Coming decade will mark the period of domestic refineries expansion. Refining capacity, which stands at 250mmtpa in FY20, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4% and reach 367mmtpa in FY31. ~2x FY1120) are lined up to be commissioned by FY31; however, just one-fourth the capacity has a clear timeline / has seen work commence. LPG yield from refineries has been in the range of 4.54.9% over the last 10 years, and may decline with increasing focus of refiners on producing petrochemicals. LPG production is expected to increase ~1.5x (to 18.5mmtpa) by FY31, while imports could see an increase of ~2.7x (to 36.5mmtpa) over this period. The above scenario assumes that all of the refinery expansion projects would get commissioned by FY31; although, considering only those projects where work has already commenced, the estimated imports CAGR over FY2131 could be ~12%.

23 June 2020 AGIS reported 4QFY20 EBITDA of INR930m (-10% YoY), 29% below est. on higher other expenditure and lower LPG throughput. The company recognized ESOP expenses of INR0.4b (in addition to INR1.9b for 9MFY20). It continues to take an INR20m commission provision toward the managing directors (in addition to INR60m for 9MFY20) in the other expenses for the quarter. Other income came in higher than estimated, resulting in PBT of INR860m (flat YoY and QoQ). Tax rate for the quarter stood at 45.8% as the company adopted the new lower tax rate (by realizing deferred tax assets). PAT for the quarter stood at INR341m (-45% YoY). EBITDA for Liquids increased 28% YoY to INR370m and EBITDA for Gas increased 37% YoY to INR1,220m in the quarter. AGIS operates 115 stations, and the company had earlier guided for ~200 stations over the next five years. In FY20, EBITDA stood at INR2.

ected to reach USD 359 bn by 2025, witnessing a CAGR of 3.1% between 2019-25.. Rapid urbanization in emerging countries has triggered the growth of LPG market. The industrial sector, especially the...