Aegis Logistics Ltd. share price forecast

Signs of improvement as retail rebounds

The company recorded good traction from all three OMCs at its Mumbai and Pipavav LPG terminals. Additional jetty connectivity and construction are underway at Pipavav and Kandla terminals, with expected commissioning in Jun'22 and Sep'22, respectively. The company commissioned two bottling plants (at Tata and Jamnagar). It will be adding another at Pipavav in 4QFY22. It added two new stations in the Auto Gas segment and plans to add an additional 30 more stations (in the 14 states where they are present currently) over the next two years....

Aegis Logistics' Q2FY22 revenue from operations experienced a year-overyear year decline of 2.3% to Rs. 635.24 crs. Its gas segment raked in revenues of Rs. 570.92 crs witnessing a year-over-year year decline of almost 4%. Liquid...

Aegis Logistics' (AGIS) Q2FY22 performance was above expectations with revival in LPG volumes driven by opening-up of travel and eateries. PAT for the quarter came in at INR94cr.

Results in line, growth recovery expected from H2FY22

Vopak partnership offers multi-year growth visibility

AGIS has established a JV Aegis Vopak Terminals (AVTL). Both LPG and liquid storage terminals at Kandla and Pipavav, and liquid storage terminals at Mangalore, Kochi, and Haldia have been brought under AVTL. AGIS will hold 51% stake in AVTL,...

Aegis Logistics (AGIS) reported a miss on our estimates, primarily due to a drop in the Gas business, while the Liquids business performed robustly. The Gas Logistics business was impacted as AGIS reported a shift in BPCL volumes from its Haldia LPG terminal to its recently commissioned terminal. Aegis clocked higher movement of LPG wagons at its Pipavav railway gantry and signed BPCL as a second customer (apart from IOCL). The Mumbai LPG terminal is operating at the maximum level since Dec'20. The Liquids business saw margin expansion in 4Q with the handling of...

Gearing up for robust growth

While doing segment analysis, it is observed that the liquid division continued to perform strongly in the second quarter of FY21. Aegis had revenues for the division of Rs 56.44 crs in Q2 versus Rs 50.02 crs a year earlier, a rise of nearly13% year-on-year and EBITDA for Q2 was Rs 39.5 crs versus Rs 32.8 crs a year earlier, a rise of over 20% year on-year. year. Since the liquid division relies largely on storage based revenues, it was little affected by the ongoing...

23 July 2020 Coming decade will mark the period of domestic refineries expansion. Refining capacity, which stands at 250mmtpa in FY20, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4% and reach 367mmtpa in FY31. ~2x FY1120) are lined up to be commissioned by FY31; however, just one-fourth the capacity has a clear timeline / has seen work commence. LPG yield from refineries has been in the range of 4.54.9% over the last 10 years, and may decline with increasing focus of refiners on producing petrochemicals. LPG production is expected to increase ~1.5x (to 18.5mmtpa) by FY31, while imports could see an increase of ~2.7x (to 36.5mmtpa) over this period. The above scenario assumes that all of the refinery expansion projects would get commissioned by FY31; although, considering only those projects where work has already commenced, the estimated imports CAGR over FY2131 could be ~12%.

23 June 2020 AGIS reported 4QFY20 EBITDA of INR930m (-10% YoY), 29% below est. on higher other expenditure and lower LPG throughput. The company recognized ESOP expenses of INR0.4b (in addition to INR1.9b for 9MFY20). It continues to take an INR20m commission provision toward the managing directors (in addition to INR60m for 9MFY20) in the other expenses for the quarter. Other income came in higher than estimated, resulting in PBT of INR860m (flat YoY and QoQ). Tax rate for the quarter stood at 45.8% as the company adopted the new lower tax rate (by realizing deferred tax assets). PAT for the quarter stood at INR341m (-45% YoY). EBITDA for Liquids increased 28% YoY to INR370m and EBITDA for Gas increased 37% YoY to INR1,220m in the quarter. AGIS operates 115 stations, and the company had earlier guided for ~200 stations over the next five years. In FY20, EBITDA stood at INR2.

ected to reach USD 359 bn by 2025, witnessing a CAGR of 3.1% between 2019-25.. Rapid urbanization in emerging countries has triggered the growth of LPG market. The industrial sector, especially the...

3 February 2020 3QFY20 revenues were 13% higher than est. at INR21.7b (+64% YoY), led by boost in gas business revenues (LPG logistics volumes up 68% YoY and 28% QoQ). According to management, AGIS is expected to see gas throughput jump ~2.0mmtpa over the next two years (on base of 2.5mmtpa in FY19). We remain positive on the companys gas division and reiterate The company has recognized ESOP expenses of INR0.4b (in addition to INR1.5b in 2QFY20), which led to EBITDA miss of 18% at INR1.1b (v/s gain of INR0.9b in 3QFY19). Adjusting for the ESOP, EBITDA was 14% higher than est. The company has also taken INR20m provision for commissions to the Managing Director (totaling to INR60m for 9MFY20) in other expenses.

27 November 2019 Oil & Gas Over FY11-19, LPG consumption in India registered ~7% CAGR while LPG imports clocked ~14% CAGR over the same period. LPG demand in India is expected to grow from ~23mmt in FY19 to ~40mmt in FY35 (a conservative estimate) supported by increased LPG penetration in the country and rise in average consumption per household. With Indian refiners moving towards increasing yields of higher value added products, LPG production is expected to lag the incremental demand. We estimate LPG imports to register ~6-7% CAGR over FY20-35. The company expects to push gas through its Mumbai terminal starting Jan20, which should aid additional throughput of ~400-500,000mtpa (taking the total throughput to 1.2mmtpa). A new LPG project at Kandla with static capacity of 45,000mt is expected to be completed by 4QFY21. Throughput of ~700,000mtpa is expected in the first full year of operation (i.e.

cording to industry reports, global LPG market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% between 2019 and 2025 and reach USD 359 bn by 2025 from USD 278 bn in 2018. Asia Pacific is the leader in terms of revenue and is projected to sustain its dominance over the he forecast time period with the highest growth rate. Increasing government support for LPG adoption such as Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Scheme (PMUY) by GOI, which recently met its...

3 July 2019 Oil & Gas LPG demand in India is expected to increase from ~23mmt in FY19 to ~40mmt in FY35 (a conservative estimate) due to (a) increased LPG penetration in the country, (b) rise in average consumption per household, and (c) growing urbanization. AGIS handled ~2.52mmt (19%) of the total ~13.2mmt (FY19) LPG imports in India. The company plans to increase its market share to ~33% by creating a network of terminals; these will focus on (a) congestion free ports with increase in throughput (turns), (b) possibility of anchoring Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs), and (c) adequate storage capacity and proper evacuation facility. currently contributes ~75% to the total EBITDA; gas business mix ~80% terminalling, 13% distribution and ~7% sourcing. The company enjoys EBITDA margin of ~65%, generating an IRR of ~20-25%. Such high IRR for liquids is sufficed by AGIS lower handling loss of ~0.05% as against industry norm of ~0.

(our estimate: INR0.7b), primarily driven by a rise in Gas division volumes. For FY19, sales were up 17% YoY at INR56.2b, with EBITDA at INR3.7b (+39% YoY). PAT growth was relatively lower at 12% YoY (to INR2.2b) due to higher depreciation and interest costs. Normalized Gas EBITDA up 65% YoY at INR0.9b Logistics volumes were up 47% YoY at 710kmt. For FY19, throughput was at 2.5mmt v/s 1.7mmt in FY18, led by Pipavav and Haldia ramp-up. The company handled ~19% of India's total import of 13.2mmt in FY19 and...

According to Stratistics MRC, a leading global market research company, global LPG market accounting for 285.9 mn tons in 20152015 is expected to reach 390.13 mn tons by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% during the forecast period (2015-2022).. Consumption of LPG is surging across the globe, majorly on account of rise in number of vehicles using auto gas and increasing government initiatives to boost LPG consumption, surging LPG...

We note that profitability was adversely impacted by higher lease cost at the Kandla port. Nevertheless, both the Kandla and Haldia terminals will be fully operational (at full capacity) post commissioning from 3QFY19, making vital contribution (along with Mangalore terminal) to profitability. Logistics volume growth is likely to remain strong, led by ramp-up of the Haldia and Pipavav terminals. Record-high production volumes were achieved in LPG Cylinders & Industrial LPG segment, as north-east India is witnessing strong demand for LPG. AGIS has won two tenders from IOC for sourcing of 1.5MT of LPG for 2019, and tenders from HPCL and BPCL are awaited. Pipavav terminal is likely to continue operating at 25% capacity, while Haldia terminal is expected to witness higher volumes and profitability. We believe AGIS is a key beneficiary of Indias rising LPG consumption. With ramp-up of Haldia and Pipavav LPG terminals, we expect 49% logistics volume CAGR over FY18-20.