Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. share price target

Dr.Reddys Lab s (DRL) revenue, increased by 26.4 percent YoY to Rs 48bn, is higher than our estimates of Rs43.3 bn, primarily due to good growth in Domestic, Europe and Emerging market and licence fees for three proprietary products.

Revenues grew 26.1% YoY to | 4812.8 crore (I-direct estimate: | 4587.1 crore) on the back of sale of three proprietary products (| 720 crore). EBITDA margins expanded 221.4 bps to 22.1% (I-direct estimate: 26.6%) mainly due to sale of proprietary products and lower R&D; spend. Delta vis--vis I-direct estimates was mainly due to an adverse product mix. EBITDA grew 40.1% YoY to | 1063.8 crore against I-direct estimate of | 1222.0 crore. Net profit grew 113.5% YoY to | 1106.8 crore (I-direct estimate: | 790.0 crore). Delta vis--vis EBITDA mainly due to lower tax outgo led by recognition of...

PSAI/EM/EU drive growth: Adjusting for one-time income of INR7.2b as license fee for two brands, sales increased 7.5% YoY to INR40.8b (our estimate: INR41.9b) in 2QFY20, led by PSAI (+18% YoY), EMs (+10% YoY) and Europe (+44% YoY), partly offset by muted growth in the US (flat YoY). For...

control on overheads with its ongoing program of rationalized assets, products and global presence. Employee and SGA costs decreased by 2% and 1% respectively, while R&D; costs increased only by 1% QoQ. Its adoption of new strategy with cost-benefit analysis of each operational activity helps to limit the reduction of adj. EBITDA margin only by 20bps QoQ to 19.2%, despite one-off inventory adjustment, adverse forex (USD/INR), price erosion in core US generis and recalls of Ranitidine. Adjusted with one-off income of...

We interacted with Dr Reddys Lab management recently.

Dr. Reddy's reported a weak set of operating numbers. Consolidated revenue of `38,435 mn in Q1FY20, growth of 3% YoY and a decline of 4% QoQ. During the quarter, the company received an amount of `3457 mn (Other income) from Celgene as a settlement agreement related to Revlimid that elevated EBITDA and Net profit. Adjusted EBITDA grew by only 10% YoY to `8,789 during the quarter. Whilst EBITDA margin came in at 20%, decline of 98bps YoY. Gross profit margin for the quarter was...

Other operating income at Rs.380 crore; includes Rs.350 crore received from Celgene pursuant to an agreement entered towards settlement of any claim the Company or its affiliates may have had for damages under section 8 of the Canadian Patented Medicines (Notice of Compliance) Regulations in regard to the Company's ANDS for a generic version of...

Dr. Reddy's Lab. (DRRD) reported mixed performance in Q1FY20, with revenue at Rs3,843Cr (vs. estimate of Rs3,931Cr), below expectation on account of softness in PSAI segment (down 33%/16% on QoQ/YoY) and Proprietary product (due to divested assets).

Having overcome regulatory issues at key formulations plants, the co is rapidly ramping up US revenues with key oncology and injectables launches. Additionally, biosimilar and complex generics launches in EM and reg markets, renewed focus on India, and traction gained in EU & China will support rev CAGR of ~15% over FY19-21E. Mr Erez Israeli has now stepped up as the CEO, following a successful stint as COO with ~400bps improvement in EBITDA margin during FY19. Continued cost optimization, divestment of non-core assets, and healthy revenue growth across key geographies along with a better mix will drive ~19% PAT CAGR over FY19-21E. Considering the improving balance sheet, healthy FCF (Rs 15bn+ annually), and largely clear regulatory status, the valuations remain lucrative at 20.7/17.8x FY20/21E P/E. We maintain BUY on DRRD following a miss on our estimates driven by temporary issues. Our TP is unchanged at Rs 3,360 (20x FY21E EPS + Rs 380/sh for niche products). A visible ramp up in the US and further cost efficiencies enable us to stay confident.

US going through rough patch but promising launches ahead Despite a challenging time, US remains a key driver for the company, contributing ~42% to total revenues. The company has a strong pending pipeline comprising 104 (58 Para IV filings, 34 FTFs) and three NDAs under 505 (b)(2) route. We expect US sales to grow at a CAGR of 11% to | 7395...