Container Corporation of India Ltd. share price target

CONCOR’s Q1FY26 EBITDA of INR 4.26bn missed consensus estimates by ~9%. Overall volume grew 11.3% YoY (EXIM- 12% and domestic- 9.1%), EBITDA was impacted due to volume discount reconciliation and increase in employee cost (one time performance bonus) of INR 180mn.

CCRI holds a dominant position with a ~58% market share at JNPT and a 56% pan-India share as of Mar’25, complemented by a significant presence at Mundra (37.7%) and Pipavav (48.4%) ports.

Container Corporation of India (CCRI)’s revenues were flat YoY at INR22b during 3QFY25 (10% below our estimate). Total volumes grew 12% YoY to 1.3m TEUs, with EXIM/Domestic volumes at 0.97m/0.3m TEUs, respectively (+8%/+25% YoY).

The management of Container Corporation of India (CCRI) has projected
handling volume growth of 15% for EXIM, 25% for domestic, and 18%
overall in FY25.

Container Corporation of India’s (CONCOR) Q2FY24 EBITDA was 11% ahead of street’s estimates. Key points: 1) Profitability of domestic operations improved owing to better control over empty rake movement. 2) Exim profitability aided by higher double stacking. 3) Enhanced focus on scope and span of services.

Container Corporation of India’s (CONCOR) Q1FY24 EBITDA missed our and consensus estimates by 12.7% and 15.6% respectively. Key points: 1) EBITDA margin contracted to 20.4% and EBITDA/teu was down to INR 3,580 (lowest since Q1FY22) on escalation of provision for land license fee (LLF) and lower realisation; 2) originating volumes declined 5.4% YoY to ~571kteu due to subdued demand, weather-related disruptions in north and west of India.

Container Corporation of India’s (CONCOR) Q4FY23 performance missed consensus estimates. Key points: 1) EBITDA margin declined further sequentially to 20.5% in Q4FY23 (vs 21.4% in Q3FY23); 2) EBITDA/teu rose slightly owing to better profitability of the domestic segment

Container Corporation of India’s (Concor) performance missed consensus estimates. Key points: 1) EBITDA/teu declined due to higher proportion of domestic business; 2) EBITDA margin was down 390bps QoQ to 21.4%; 3) rail freight expenses were higher due to removal of certain discounts by Indian Railways.

Container Corporation of India’s (Concor) Q2FY23 performance missed
consensus estimates. Key takeaways: 1) EBITDA/teu declined due to higher
proportion of domestic business.

The recent cabinet approval to reduce the land licence fees for railway land from 6% to 1.5% of the land cost will help increase the private sector's involvement in the Gati Shakti programme.

Container Corporation of India (Concor) maintained its Q1FY23 volume guidance despite a weak EXIM print. Origination was 64% of EXIM and 47% of domestic volumes (stable).