Container Corporation of India Ltd. share price target

Volumes were down 2% YoY in 2QFY20. However, revenue grew 1% YoY to INR17.4b (in-line), led by a 3% YoY improvement in realization. EBITDA increased 5% YoY to INR4.3b (in-line), with the margin at 24.5% (+1pp YoY). PBT of INR3.5b (-25% YoY; +9% QoQ) too was in line with our estimate. There was an exceptional expense of 31 October 2019 INR8.6b as part of Service Export from India Scheme (SEIS) income recognized for prior years was disallowed by the DGFT. CCRI is in the process of filing an appeal in the matter. Post-tax loss thus stood at INR3.2b versus a profit of INR3.4b in 2QFY19. The company has opted for the new tax rate of 25.

Container Corp (CCRI) posted a well-rounded performance in FY19.

We reiterate BUY as (1) Volume growth is expected in mid-teens with the commissioning of the DFC. We are building in 6%/14%/18% growth in volumes over FY20/21/22E (2) The medium term growth opportunity post DFC will drive up valuations (3) ROEs are expected to improve to 15.9% in FY22E (from 12.6% in FY19) Key risk: Any increase in charges by Indian railways. Despite flat volumes, Container Corporation (CCRI) reported a healthy beat in EBITDA margins at 24.6%. Medium term growth drivers are intact as the co will benefit from phased commissioning of the DFC and from margin efficiencies. Reiterate BUY with a revised TP of Rs 660 (at 24x Sep-21 EPS).

Container Corporation of India (Concor) reported a strong set of Q1FY20 numbers (ex-SEIS income). Topline grew 9% YoY while PBT grew 16%. The company did not record any SEIS incentive (exceptional income) during the quarter vs. | 70 crore in Q1FY19). Therefore, PAT de-grew 10 YoY. The topline growth was devoid of any incremental volume performance (-1% YoY) and was entirely based on realisation growth (~10% YoY). Ex-SIES EBITDA margins grew 324 bps to 24.6% led by adjustments related to the Ind-AS 116 lease accounting. The company has reported accumulated...

Volumes dip; profitability improves led by realization: Revenues grew 9% YoY to INR16.4b (v/s our est. INR17.6b). Volumes dip 1% YoY. Realizations increased 10%YoY. EBITDA margins came in at 24.6%, while EBITDA stood at INR4.03b. Subsequent to the implementation of IND-AS116 during the quarter, operating/other expenses declined, while depreciation/finance cost increased. While depreciation has increased by ~INR150m, the impact on finance cost is almost negligible. Thus, EBIT/TEU for EXIM was at INR3,720 (+32%YoY) while that for domestic stood at INR1,342 (+19%YoY) in 1QFY20....

In-line Q1, balance sheet better; Maintains volume guidance with riders The Q1FY20 was in-line, adjusted for unrecognized SEIS income. Margins improved 300bps YoY, despite a volume decline of 1% YoY, due to the price hikes taken in FY19 and beginning FY20. The company has maintained its 10-12% volume growth guidance, but cautioned that the growth depends on the economy. Balance sheet has improved and company is again net cash. DFC remains the most important long-term trigger that should aid margins. We retain our FY20/21 estimates, given the in-line PAT post...

Container Corp (CCRI) reported a healthy operating performance in Q1FY20.

We set a Sep-20 TP of Rs 670, based on 24x one year forward earnings, at a 10% premium to its 10-year mean multiple. With commissioning of the DFC, the medium term growth opportunity for CONCOR will drive up valuations We initiate on Container Corporation with a BUY. Indias dominant container rail operator (~75% mktshare) is expected to report healthy 16% earnings CAGR over FY19-22E, with the commissioning of the (Western) Dedicated Freight Corridor as well as internal efficiencies.

Revenue target of Rs 250bn: CCRI has set itself an ambitious revenue target of Rs 250bn by FY25/FY26 (Rs 7bn in FY19), factoring in the paradigm shift expected post DFC commissioning and material revenue...

Container Corporation of India (Concor) reported a strong set of Q4FY19 numbers (ex-SEIS income). SEIS incentive during the quarter came in at | 84 crore vs. | 82 crore in Q4FY18. Although overall volumes remain subdued in both segment (Exim & domestic), higher realisation led to 12% YoY growth in revenues. Adjusted EBITDA margins remained largely flat at 21.9%. Subsequently, adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to | 383 crore. PAT grew 20% to | 352 crore, as a strong operational performance and higher other...