Container Corporation of India Ltd. share price target

This was weighed by the COVID-19 impact on volumes (-21% YoY) and structural increase in fixed cost due to a >5x increase in land license fee (LLF) charged by the Railways for the use of its land. Revenue declined to INR11.9b (-27% YoY / -24% QoQ), v/s our estimate of INR12.1b, on weaker volumes and realization. EXIM volumes stood at 627,905 TEUs (-20% YoY / -19% QoQ) and domestic volumes were at 104,806 TEUs (-25% YoY / -37% QoQ). EXIM realization was weak at INR14,344/TEU (-11% YoY / -2% QoQ), while domestic realization stood at INR27,524/TEU (+5% YoY / +4% QoQ). Total expenditure, however, declined marginally to INR10.3b (-17% YoY, -6% QoQ) on higher LLF effective from 1QFY21. However, from 1QFY21, MoR changed the LLF charged to 6% of the value of the land and raised demand for INR7.76b for FY21 (>5x of INR1.

Weak quarter; Land License Fee shocker. Move rating to Accumulate Q1FY21 report lower than estimated Sales, EBIDTA, and PAT during the quarter. Revenue at Rs ~11.9Bn, down -27% YoY /-24% QoQ led -21%/8% volume/realisation decline. Margins at 13.4%, a multi-year low. Expects improvement in H2FY21. Q2 will be better than Q1FY21. Ministry of Railways has demanded for Rs 7.77Bn as LLF for FY21 for the Okhla and Tughlakabad Terminals of CONCOR at Delhi. However, company believes that demand is not as per the Railway's extant policy. Rs 1.2Bn has been provided for the quarter....

From April 1, the Railway Ministry revised the annual land licensing fee (LLF) norms for Concor (Indian Railway land on which ~25 Concor of total 64 terminals operate). The change should be seen in the backdrop of Concor's privatisation, as earlier mode of LLF payment provided certain advantage to the company vs. other private CTOs. Earlier method of payment was based on Concor's volumes and was, thus, variable in nature (| 1175/TeU). However, the revised mode of payment is fixed in nature (6% of value of land). This has caused LLF payment to jump from earlier | 120 crore paid in...

Commencing of new terminals, strategic initiatives along with value offerings, etc. help CCRI sustain growth momentum ahead. CCRI reported decent 1Q numbers led by healthy volumes despite impact of Covid-19 pandemic indicating signs of revival in economic activity. However,...

Container Corp's (CCRI) Q1FY21 revenue/EBITDA dropped 27%/61% YoY, in line with estimates.

EBITDA margin, thus, improved by 4pp We have cut our FY21/FY22 estimates on weaker volume outlook and sharp increase in land license fee by the Railways. We maintain expected longer-term volume and margin benefits from the commissioning of the Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) project by end-FY21. came in at 775,319 TEUs (-5% YoY) and domestic volumes at 165,951 TEUs CCRIs 4QFY20 reported revenues came in at INR15.7b (-10% YoY, +3% QoQ), below est. EBITDA stood at INR4.7b (+24% YoY, +28% QoQ) above est. FY20 Adj. PAT stood at INR10.1, down 16.7% During FY20, CCRI lost 6% market share as it chose not to match the aggressive pricing of private companies in short-haul freight. CCRI had announced a price hike earlier but has deferred it to 1 DFC commissioning has been delayed to end-FY21 (v/s Jul20 expected earlier). Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) commissioning has been delayed to end-FY21 (v/s Jul20 expected earlier), delaying the likely benefit from the project to CCRI.

Concor reported strong numbers with reported revenues, PAT above I-direct estimates. The company did not record any exceptional income during the quarter vs. | 84 crore in Q4FY19. Operationally, Exim volumes de-grew 5% (realisation de-growth of 10% YoY) while domestic volumes grew ~2% (realisation remained flat). Exim revenues de-grew 14% to | 1131 crore while domestic revenues remained flat at | 438 crore. Standalone EBITDA margins grew 837 bps YoY to 30.2% while absolute EBITDA grew 24%. Due to the inclusion of SEIS income in the previous comparable quarter and an...

FY21 guidance: 1) Volumes will decline 20% YoY to 3mn Teus 2) Price hike deferred to 1st Oct 3) Capex will be Rs 5bn 4) Land License fee will be Rs 4.5bn vs Rs 1.4bn in FY20. 5) Surrendered 15 of 41 terminals built on Indian Rail land, impact insignificant as revenue contribution was 4%. Volume from the other terminals been shifted to nearby terminals. Factoring the weakness in volume growth, we lower our PAT estimates by -26%/-19% in FY21E/FY22E, respectively, which lowers our DCF...

The unprecedented trade slowdown triggered by Covid-19 clouds Container Corp's (CCRI) near-term prospects and has fuelled a 4% YoY drop in Q4FY20 volumes.

Q4FY20 has been characterised by two separate trends wherein January and February saw a normal growth trajectory whereas in March growth is expected to be negatively impacted by restrictions imposed on trade to contain the spread of Covid-19. Global logistics in Q4FY20 saw unprecedented disruption moving from a supply shock in China initially at beginning of the quarter to a demand shock as major countries announced lockdowns of their economies to slow the spread of the Coronavirus. India's major ports container volumes for January 2020 have grown 1.9% while rail...