Coal India Ltd. share price target

ff Flat revenue growth amid Decreased Realization: CIL's revenue growth remained flat in 4QFY16 despite 7.8% yoy rise in coal off-take to 165.2 million tonne. However, average realization of coal decreased by 7.0% yoy to Rs1,474 per tonne due to 30% yoy decline in e-auction price to Rs1,648 on account of low...

Efficiencies eroded 4% demand: All India coal consumption grew just 1.4% in FY16, the slowest in five years due to low demand from the Power sector and decline in non-Power sector demand. Efficiency gains crowded out 4% demand...

There have been media reports implying that Coal India (COAL) has cut prices of high grade coal by up to 40%. Yet, our channel checks and COAL's website do not indicate any price revisions. However, COAL has done away with incentives on...

Coal dispatches in March grew by 3.5% YoY to 49.1mt, the slowest pace of growth in the last 12-months. Dispatches for full year FY16 have increased by 8.8% YoY to 532mt, broadly in-line with our estimate....

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Coal India reported a steady set of Q3FY16 numbers primarily on the back of healthy volume growth (offtake increased 10.7% YoY). The...

Coal India (CIL) reported a strong quarter (EBITDA Rs 49.3bn, 9.7% YoY, 96% QoQ), driven by offtake growth (137.9 mT, 10.7% YoY) and moderation in employee costs (Rs 73.5 bn, -1.8% YoY, 2.3% QoQ).

Coal India (CIL) reported in line consolidated net sales of Rs195.9bn, up by 7.0% yoy in 3QFY16 in line with our expectation, due to higher coal off-take at 9.4% yoy. However, reported PAT, which was up by 13.9% yoy to Rs37.1bn came above our expectation due to better-than-expected operating margins. CIL has corrected recently by 30% as the GoI intends to disinvest 10% stake & a fall in e-auction coal prices which we believe is already discounted at the current valuations. We believe that the positive initiatives taken by the Ministry to address fuel issues are expected to bring faster developments on policy front....

Coal India (CIL) reported a weak quarter (EBITDA Rs 25.2bn, -4.1% YoY, -50.6% QoQ) as e-auction prices declined sharply (Rs 1,788/t, -28.4% YoY, -18.1% QoQ) following a drop in demand in the power and non-power sectors.

For 2QFY2016, Coal India (CIL) reported a strong 8% yoy increase in revenue to Rs16,958cr, in line with our estimate of Rs16,833cr. Off-take volumes were marginally ahead of our expectations at 121.8MT (our estimate was of 119.1MT). Off-take was higher in the FSA segment with e-auction and washeries volumes in line with expectations. FSA realizations were in line with expectations at Rs1,294/T. However, e-auction realizations came in much lower than expected at Rs1,788. Blended realization/tonne came in lower than our expectation at Rs1,392 (1.5% lower than our estimate of Rs1,414), led by the sharply lower e-auction realisation. Blended realisation declined 2% yoy, while off-take increased 10.2% yoy, resulting in an 8.2% increase in net sales. The EBITDA, at Rs3,008cr, came in 3.2% lower than our estimate, resulting in a 140bp improvement in EBITDA margin to 17.2%, marginally lower than our estimate of 17.9%. Net profit at Rs2,544cr was slightly ahead of our estimate of Rs2,445cr. Outlook and valuation We reduce our consolidated FY2016 and FY2017 EPS estimates by 12% and 9%, respectively, in view of the lower than expected realizations and increased operating expenses. We expect CILs production to increase by 7.1% to 530MT in FY2016 (538MT earlier) and 572MT...