CESC Ltd. share price target

FY19 consol. adj. PAT grew 43% YoY to INR11.8b (consol. numbers are reported annually) v/s our est. of INR10.1b. The strong performance was driven by sharp reduction in losses at Dhariwal and lower losses in distribution franchisee (DF). Standalone (S/A): PAT grew ~8% YoY to INR9.4b. T&D; losses were lower ~70bp YoY to 9% (down ~260bp in the last three years). Sales were flat at 10.4BU due to weak demand and weather conditions. Capitalization is estimated at INR3.8b, implying regulated equity increase of ~3% YoY in FY19. Haldia: PAT was broadly unchanged at INR3.2b as it continues to benefit from...

CESC reported lower-than-expected Q3FY19 results on account of lower revenues and higher costs, which, in turn, impacted EBITDA. Revenues came in below our estimates at | 1707 crore vs. our estimate of | 1825 crore. Generation was flat YoY while energy sold was down 2% YoY at 229.5 crore units In Q3FY19, power sold at Haldia Energy was 107.4 crore units while Chandrapur plant posted ~100% YoY generation at 88 crore units Absolute EBITDA came in at | 202 crore, significantly below our...

CESC Ventures, which got listed on 25 January 2019. Generation and revenue remained flat; however, EBITDA came in below our expectations due to higher operating expenses and fuel costs. PAT was marginally above our estimate on favorable rate-regulated income. In Q3FY19, PLF improved across the Haldia and Chandrapur plants, driven largely by the festive season which led to a rise in power demand. The Chandrapur plant's case IV PPA with MSPGCL was extended by another 45 days until January 13, 2019. We expect Chandrapur's loss to narrow to Rs1.2bn in FY19 from Rs2.0bn in FY18....

5 February 2019 3QFY19 on account of lower T&D; losses and interest cost. Sales in the Kolkata distribution circle declined 2.1% YoY to 2.3BU, given the strong base (increased 12% YoY in 3Q last year). Revenue was flat YoY at INR17.1b. T&D; losses declined 200bp YoY to 9.8%. Power exports stood at 135MU, as against 212MU in the year-ago period. EBITDA, including rate regulatory item, increased 6% YoY to INR4b (in-line). Depreciation was flat YoY at INR1.1b. Finance cost declined 3% YoY/QoQ to INR1.2b.

7 January 2019 Maharashtra DISCOM recently concluded auction of two distribution circles under the distribution franchisee (DF) model. The license is for 20 years, extendable by 10 years. More than 80% of the energy supply is to industrial/commercial customers. Based on preliminary data, Malegaon circle is equal to CESCs Kota distribution franchisee circle in terms of input energy. The input energy was 677MU and AT&C; losses stood at 47%. The input energy was 677MU and AT&C; losses stood at 47%. The contract is for 20 years, extendable by 10 years. The circle is adjacent to Torrents existing Bhiwandi operations. In terms of input energy, the circle is ~20% of size of its Bhiwandi operations. The winning bidder is selected on the price of input energy it will pay the DISCOM. DF has no role in fixing tariff (it is determined by the regulator for the DISCOMs operating area).

28 December 2018 CESCs power distribution includes Kolkata, Noida (49% stake) and three franchisee (DFs) circles in Rajasthan. The generation portfolio includes installed capacity of ~2.5GW, of which only 300MW is without any long-term PPA. The regulated distribution business of Kolkata and Noida generates a healthy RoE of ~20%. Noida, which is a new circle, has grown at CAGR of ~21% over FY13-18 and we expect ~11% CAGR over FY18-21. The DFs are in the initial years of operation. We expect a meaningful contribution from DFs only after a couple of years. Generation capacity under long-term PPA generates healthy double-digit RoE on the back of efficient operations and favorable norms. CESC, in its new form, reported PAT of ~INR8.3b in FY18, up ~55% YoY, driven by the full benefit of Noida PPA at Dhariwal power plant. PAT is partly dragged by initial losses in the DFs (~INR1.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues came in at | 2220 crore, up 6.3% YoY vs. our estimate of | 2367.8 crore. Energy sold in Q2FY19, in the standalone business grew 7.6% to 296.4 crore units vs. our estimate of 311.6 crore units while realisation was at | 7.5/Kwhr vs. 7.6/Kwhr in Q2FY18 During Q2FY19, power sold at Haldia Energy was up ~9% at 127.3 crore units while Chandrapur plant reported improved generation to 64.5 crore units in Q2FY19 compared to 57.2 crore units in Q2FY18...

CESC's net profit grew by 9.7% YoY to Rs2.7bn in 2QFY19 primarily owing to recognition of regulatory revenue of Rs370mn along with 7.3% YoY growth in unit sales to 2,964mn units. While its revenue grew by 6.3% YoY to Rs22bn, EBITDA grew marginally by 1.1% YoY to Rs5.5bn. Realisation remained flat at Rs7.5/kwh. Valuing CESC's power business on FCFE methodology, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs775...

Under the new scheme, CESC Ltd will continue to comprise its generation and distribution segments, while two new entities - RP-SG Retail Ltd and RP-SG BPO Ltd - will be formed. For every 10 shares of CESC, 6 shares of FV Rs5 of RP-SG Retail Ltd and 2 shares of FV Rs10 of RP-SG BPO Ltd will be issued. The record date for the demerger is October 31, 2018, and the shares of the two new entities will be listed by the end of Nov'18. While we believe that the demerger of the Retail and BPO arms is positive, the continuation of the distribution segment with the gencos (as of now) may not unlock the desired value that was projected earlier....

CESC has announces its demerger into three entities instead of the earlier planned four-way merger. The change in decision was on account of a delay in receiving approval regulatory approval for power purchase agreement (PPA) between the distribution and generation companies from West Bengal State Electricity Regulatory Commission (WBSERC). Under the new demerger scheme, CESC will be demerged into three entities viz. CESC, new retail and venture companies. CESC will continue to have generation and distribution business along with other power...