Cera Sanitaryware Ltd. share price target

The bathware industry slowed down from Q3FY24, but the company expects gradual pick-up in demand from H2FY25 onwards

Cera Sanitaryware’s H1 remained soft as revenue was flat at Rs8.9bn. EBITDA declined 11.4% y/y, while PAT inched up 1.7% y/y to Rs1.2bn.

CRS posted strong faucet revenue growth (+23% YoY) in a weak demand environment

We recently interacted with management of Cera Sanitaryware (CRS). Demand scenario in Q2-TD has seen some improvement QoQ but still remains sluggish.

In Q1FY25, Cera Sanitaryware’s (CRS) consolidated revenue fell 6.5% YoY with sanitaryware/ faucetware segments’ revenue dipping ~9%/5% YoY.

Sharp contraction in gross margin in Q4FY24 on higher discounts offered to dealers to push volumes in a weak demand environment

Q3 EBITDA fell 18% YoY and missed our estimate by 28% on subdued demand and higher brand & sales promotion expense

In Q2FY24, Cera Sanitaryware (CRS) reported consolidated revenue growth of 11.5% YoY with sanitaryware / faucetware segments growing 4.3%/15.7% YoY, while tiles increasing ~34% YoY. EBITDA margin improved 16bps YoY (+8bps QoQ), while gross margin shrank 296bps YoY (-197bps QoQ) due to RM pressure, whereas employee/other expenses dipped 76bps/236bps YoY, resulting in EBIDTA/APAT growth of 12.6%/14.4% YoY, respectively.

We recently interacted with the management of Cera Sanitaryware (CRS). Key takeaways: 1) Demand scenario in Q2- TD has been tepid as higher overall inflationary conditions have resulted in some temporary slackness. CRS expects demand to be much stronger in H2FY24 and has reiterated its ~20% YoY revenue growth guidance for FY24.

Cera Sanitaryware reported a muted performance, slightly missing our estimates. It registered a Revenue growth of 8% to ? 428.9 Cr led by healthy replacement demand, with Sanitaryware / Faucetware / Tiles divisions growing at 6% / 11% / 8% respectively. The EBITDA / PAT witnessed a robust growth by 38% / 42% respectively, with EBITDA / PAT margins expanding by 431bps / 318bps at 20% / 13.2% respectively owing to the easing prices of Raw materials.

In Q1FY24, Cera Sanitaryware (CRS) reported consolidated revenue growth of 8% YoY with sanitaryware/faucetware segments growing ~7%/8% YoY, while tiles revenue grew 11% YoY. Operating margin expanded 59bps YoY (flat QoQ) due to lower raw material cost (-133bps/-140bps YoY/QoQ), partly negated by higher employee expenses (+92bps YoY), resulting in EBIDTA/APAT growth of 12%/43% YoY, respectively.