Ceat Ltd. share price target

CEAT's revenue grew ~9% YoY (-2% QoQ) to INR24.1b, but EBITDA fell 59% YoY (39% QoQ) in 3QFY22 to INR1.3b (INR2.1b est.). It incurred a first quarterly loss in a decade at INR148m (v/s PAT of INR1.4b in 3QFY21). Its 9MFY22 revenue grew 27% YoY but EBITDA/PAT declined 28%/83.5% YoY. Volumes fell 5.5% YoY (3% QoQ), impacted by a decline in replacement (14% YoY) and OEM (7% YoY) but offset by strong exports (+27% YoY). Gross margin contracted 11.6pp YoY (-290bp QoQ) to 34% (v/s 36% est.), impacted by cost inflation (4% QoQ increase in RM basket, but price hike of...

CEAT's 3QFY22 consol. revenue came missed our estimates at Rs 24.1B (9% YoY/ -1% QoQ, PLe 26.5B) led by volume decline of 5.5% YoY/ 3% QoQ, while realizations grew ~2% sequentially. Margins came substantially lower at 5.5%...

Background: CEAT is one among the top four tire manufacturers in India and is a part of the RPG group. The company has a total manufacturing capacity of 0.1mn + tyres/day with plants situated in Nashik, Bhandup (Mumbai),Ambernath, Halol, Nagpur and Sri Lanka. The company manufactures all tires: Truck & Bus (33%), 2W/3W (30%), Passenger vehicles (13%), LCV (8%), Farm (9%), and Specialty (7%). In terms of market, replacement contributed 71% of the sales while OEM and exports make up 17% and 13% of the sales, respectively in 3QFY21. CEAT has a robust distribution network consisting of over 3,400+ dealers, 33 regional offices...

CEAT's 2QFY22 consol. revenue came ahead of our estimates at Rs 24.5B (24% YoY/ 29% QoQ, PLe 22.5B) led by volume growth of 9% YoY/ 23% QoQ, while realizations grew ~5% sequentially. Margins came lower at 9.0% (-580bp...

Background: CEAT is one among the top four tire manufacturers in India and is a part of the RPG group. The company has a total manufacturing capacity of 0.1mn + tyres/day with plants situated in Nashik, Bhandup (Mumbai),Ambernath, Halol, Nagpur and Sri Lanka. The company manufactures all tires: Truck & Bus (33%), 2W/3W (30%), Passenger vehicles (13%), LCV (8%), Farm (9%), and Specialty (7%). In terms of market, replacement contributed 71% of the sales while OEM and exports make up 17% and 13% of the sales, respectively in 3QFY21. CEAT has a robust distribution network consisting of over 3,400+ dealers, 33 regional offices...

CEAT's 2QFY22 operating performance was led by a strong revenue growth, although higher depreciation and interest impacted PAT. Contrary to our earlier expectation, cost inflation is expected to persist in 2HFY22, thereby deferring CEAT's margin improvement to 1HFY23. Hence, we cut our FY22E/FY23E EPS estimates by ~42%/13% to factor in the RM cost inflation, higher depreciation and interest cost. Maintain Buy....

PV and 2W segments are seeing strong momentum while T&B segment is going to gradually pick up from H2FY22. High single digit growth is difficult to achieve in FY22 because of high base. Raw material cost is likely to increase by 3% to 4% in Q2FY22 (QoQ) Company has already taken a price hike of ~4% in Q1FY22 and expects to take another 3% hike in Q2FY22....

Background: CEAT is one among the top four tire manufacturers in India and is a part of the RPG group. The company has a total manufacturing capacity of 0.1mn + tyres/day with plants situated in Nashik, Bhandup (Mumbai),Ambernath, Halol, Nagpur and Sri Lanka. The company manufactures all tires: Truck & Bus (33%), 2W/3W (30%), Passenger vehicles (13%), LCV (8%), Farm (9%), and Specialty (7%). In terms of market, replacement contributed 71% of the sales while OEM and exports make up 17% and 13% of the sales, respectively in 3QFY21. CEAT has a robust distribution network consisting of over 3,400+ dealers, 33 regional offices...

CEAT's Q1 revenue fell below projections at Rs 19bn and gross margin declined, weakening EBITDA margin to 8.7%. Adj. PAT was at Rs 199mn

At its annual investor event, CEAT outlined plans for market share gains and capacity adds underpinned by an upbeat long-term demand outlook