Ceat Ltd. share price target

In 3QFY21,CEAT reported a strong set of numbers. Revenue grew by 26.1%YoY to 22,123 mn (est.INR19,693 mn) mainly due to volume growth majorly from replacement demand led by rise in personal mobility, recovery in CV demand and farm equipment segments and restrictions on imports. EBITDA grew by 78.8% YoY to INR 3,277 mn (est.INR 2,422 mn) mainly due to higher gross margin on account of price hikes (i.e 3% in Dec'20) across categories (except 2W) and higher mix from replacement segment(+35% YoY) which resulted in operational efficiency. Moroever, in this quarter, company witnessed the strongest demand for CVs (~30% in TBR and TBB), PVs and 2W/3Ws. OTR segment grew 42% YoY due to increase in the domestic farm sector and exports. The company expects the RM basket to increase by 10% sequentially due to sharp surge in rubber and crude oil prices. Adjusted net profit stood at INR 1,417 mn (est.983 mn) strong performance on operational front. Focus on brand value with new client acquisition to increase market share gains...

Background: CEAT is one among the top four tire manufacturers in India and is a part of the RPG group. The company has a total manufacturing capacity of 0.1mn + tyres/day with plants situated in Nashik, Bhandup (Mumbai),Ambernath, Halol, Nagpur and Sri Lanka. The company manufactures all tires: Truck & Bus (33%), 2W/3W (30%), Passenger vehicles (13%), LCV (8%), Farm (9%), and Specialty (7%). In terms of market, replacement contributed 71% of the sales while OEM and exports make up 17% and 13% of the sales, respectively in 3QFY21. CEAT has a robust distribution network consisting of over 3,400+ dealers, 33 regional offices...

CEAT surprised positively on both revenue and earnings in Q3FY21, led by strong replacement demand and above-expected gross margins which could be a function of low-cost inventory.

CEAT's 3QFY21 stellar performance was driven by strong volume growth and lower than estimated RM cost inflation. Strong demand is expected to enable pass-through of RM cost inflation, help utilize recent capacity additions, drive FCF generation, and deleverage the Balance Sheet. We upgrade our FY21E/FY22E EPS by ~21%/14% to factor in expected increase in volume growth and price hikes. We see catalysts in the form of strong demand and robust margin to rollback underperformance in the stock in FY21 YTD. Maintain Buy....

CEAT's 3QFY21 consol results beat our estimates with margin sustaining at 14.8% expanding 440bp YoY (PLe 11.5%), despite RM headwinds (+1.5% increase in RM/kg) and lower replacement mix (~65% v/s ~70% in Q2). With continual healthy growth in replacement segment and likely price rise, we expect margins to remain elevated at 13.5-14% even in 4Q. However, it can normalize at 11.5-12% in FY22/23 led by a) replacement mix normalizing to...

CEAT's 2QFY21 consol results beat estimates with margins expanding by 470bp YoY at 14.8% (PLe 11.6%) led by lower RM basket (-9% YoY), higher replacement mix at 70% (v/s 60% YoY). We expect reversal in margins to normalized levels at 11-12% in 2HFY21 led by a) increased share of OEM in...

CEAT's 2QFY21 consol results beat estimates with margins expanding by 470bp YoY at 14.8% (PLe 11.6%) led by lower RM basket (-9% YoY), higher replacement mix at 70% (v/s 60% YoY). We expect reversal in margins to normalized levels at 11-12% in 2HFY21 led by a) increased share of OEM in...

Did not avail any moratorium concession due to stable liquidity position. CEAT's consolidated performance was better led by higher than expected volumes in the replacement side while pricing remained stable. We expect operating performance to be healthy in near to med term led by better mix...

Background: CEAT is one among the top four tire manufacturers in India and is a part of the RPG group. The company has a total manufacturing capacity of 0.1mn + tyres/day with plants situated in Nashik, Bhandup (Mumbai),Ambernath, Halol, Nagpur and Sri Lanka. The company manufactures all tires: Truck & Bus (31%), 2W/3W (31%), Passenger vehicles (14%), LCV (11%), Farm (6%), and Specialty (6%). In terms of market, replacement contributed 58% of the sales while OEM and exports make up 27% and 15% of the sales, respectively. CEAT has a robust distribution network consisting of over 4,000+ dealers, 33 regional offices and more than...