Zydus Lifesciences Ltd. share price target

Q2 revenues were above I-direct estimates on all fronts due to better than expected operational performance and lower interest expense. On the US front, the company plans to venture into complex injectables (69 filed ANDAs), which is likely to provide meaningful traction from FY23-24 onwards. Similarly, addition of biosimilars (like Trastuzumab, Adalimumab, Pegfilgrastim, Bevacizumab, etc) for Emerging markets (like LatAm, MENA markets and South East Asia) are expected to provide growth impetus, going ahead. The wellness segment performance hinges upon Cadila's...

Cadila reported an in-line 2Q driven by strong growth across India, US and the API segment offsetting the muted growth in consumer segment. Revenue grew 16% YoY, an improved product mix (double digit growth in India formulations and US sales at $230mn, up $13mn QoQ) led to healthy gross margins at 64.9%. Impact of MEIS offset lower marketing spends, thereby, restricting EBITDA margins at 22.6%. Adjusting for the one-time charge of Rs1.3bn, for NCD purchase and forex loss, PAT grew 63% YoY at Rs6.2bn. Cadila strengthened its balance sheet by reducing debt of Rs27bn...

Cadila continues to bear heavy debt and high intangible assets from FY19 (acquisition of Heinz by its subsidiary Zydus Wellness). Hence, total intangibles remain high at Rs68bn, 65% of net worth, mainly due to the surge in goodwill from Rs14bn to Rs53bn in FY19 and Rs54bn in FY20. Other findings: i) Currency translation loss (FCTR) shot up by Rs4.3bn, out of which Rs2.8bn impacted cash flow. iii) Other operating income and other income together flared up to Rs10bn, 67% of PBT (FY19: 45% of PBT). iv) The cash tax rate lowered from 28% to 16% in FY20, whereas the...

COVID related products to share more focus in FY21E. 1QFY21 revenue was in-line with our estimate but EBITDA and EBITDAM were beat due to decline of SG&A; 17% YoY. We believe its foray into COVID related products has diverted its focus from core business when its top revenue contributors (India, US Gx) have been lacking consistency. With HCQ already...

US (44% of FY20 revenues) grew at ~12% CAGR in FY16-20 backed by aggressive filings, product launches. Launch of authorised generics also contributed to overall growth. US pipeline (cumulative) consists of 390+ filed ANDAs, 95 pending final approvals. However, resurfacing of cGMP issues at Moraiya, imminent slowdown in base are main near term...

Outlook & Valuation: We reduce our Revenues for FY21E/FY22E by 1.4%/1.5% in FY21E/FY22E due to downgrade in domestic formulations and Consumer Wellness.

6 August 2020 CDH delivered in-line performance for 1QFY21. The decline in domestic formulation (DF) and consumer healthcare was more than offset by lower operating cost. CDH is progressing well to build Injectable/vaccine/biosimilars as additional levers of growth for the next 2-3 years. We have raised our earnings estimates for FY21/FY22E by 10%/9% to reflect better operating leverage/growth outlook for DF. We continue to value CDH at 21x 12M forward earnings to arrive at TP of INR460. We remain positive on CDH due to robust ANDA pipeline (including injectables/transdermals), renewed strategy in DF and completion of remediation measures at Moraiya. Maintain 1QFY21 sales at INRINR36.4b (v/s est. Sales growth was largely led by (a) US sales (45% of sales), up 19% YoY to INR16.2b, (b) LATAM/EM revenues (7% of sales), up 8% YoY to INR2.4b, and (c) API revenues (4% of sales), up 89% YoY. India revenue (41% of sales) comprising of DF, consumer and animal health was down 11% YoY to INR14.

Cadila Healthcare has emerged at the forefront of India's battle to fight against COVID-19. Company is one of the world's largest producer of anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine which is widely used as a prophylactic drug to prevent COVID-19 infections. Apart from that, to offer treatment options for COVID 19, company is now exploring multiple options from its portfolio of biological products and based on the available evidence, has selected the long-acting biological therapy, Pegylated Interferon alpha-2b as a potential treatment. It may be noted that Zydus Cadila has been commercially manufacturing Pegylated Interferon Alpha-2b under the...

US (44% of revenues) grew at ~12% CAGR in FY16-20 backed by aggressive filings, product launches. Launches of authorised generics also contributed to overall growth. US pipeline (cumulative) consists of 390 filed ANDAs, 99 pending final approvals. However, resurfacing of cGMP issues at Moraiya and an imminent slowdown in base are main near term headwinds. We expect US sales to grow at ~9.5% CAGR in FY20-22E to | 7502 crore. Our growth assumptions model near term Hydroxychloroquine opportunity in the US but besides this no significant meaningful launches....

Q4FY20 earnings were higher than our estimate considering 1) US growth of 5% QoQ (PLe 7% decline QoQ) due to stock-up and seasonality effect of Tamiflu 2) Consumer Wellness reported a growth of 21% YoY, while adjusted growth would have been 10%YoY. We change our rating to REDUCE (earlier SELL) and derive a new TP of Rs329 (Rs263) based on 18x PE (earlier 15x) of FY22E. We upgrade CDH on the back of 1) improved guidance for US market led by new products 2) biosimilar launch in India and EM's 3) resolution of...