The 18 reports from 9 analysts offering long term price targets
for Cadila Healthcare Ltd. have an average target of 340.86. The consensus estimate
represents an upside of 54.66%
from the last price of 220.40.
Cadila Healthcare Limited (Cadila) reported 22.2% y-o-y growth in total operating revenue to Rs. 3,496.3 crore (2% above estimate). Operating profit (adjusted for one-time cost of Rs. 70 related to acquisition) reported 14.8% y-o-y growth to Rs. 702 crore (6.5% above estimate); OPM declined by 130 BPS y-o-y to 20.1% (100 BPS above our estimate of 19.1%). Adjusted profit grew by 14.5% to Rs. 384.8 crore (11.9 % above estimates). Strong sales growth was mainly due to consumer wellness business in India (acquisition led). India human formulation reported 6%...
The US (48% of revenues) has grown at a CAGR of ~17% in FY15-19 backed by aggressive filings and product launches. Launches of authorised generics also contributed to overall growth. The US pipeline (cumulative) consists of 330 filed ANDAs, 144 pending final approvals. But resurfacing of cGMP issues at Moraiya (WL resolved in February 2017) and an eminent slowdown in the base are main near term headwinds. We expect US sales growth to remain muted in FY19-21E mainly due to high base and absence of meaningful launches in the near term. India to witness restructuring; focus on profitable SKUs...
We upgraded CDH recently as we believe that the impact of OAI on its key formulations facility at Moraiya, Gujrat is already priced-in. The sharp ~30% FYTD fall in the price makes it one of the cheapest among the large-cap pharma stocks at 15.7x onFY21E EPS. With ~100 pending approvals and 2/3rd of them being filed from Ex-Moraiya units, we believe US$ 800mn US revenues and Rs 14.6 EPS (ex-Asacol HD) are achievable. With the ability to generate Rs 8-10bn FCFs annually, net debt position remains comfortable at ~Rs 70bn (0.7x FY19). We maintain BUY on CDH despite a miss on our estimates due to certain one-time costs. We have cut our FY21 EPS by 6% to accommodate higher interest cost. Our TP is revised to Rs 265 (18x FY21E EPS).
We initiate coverage on Cadila Healthcare limited (Cadila) with a Buy rating and target price of Rs315 based on 20x FY21E EPS. Earnings growth though is likely to be muted over next two years but valuations are favorable as stock has corrected about 30% from its recent levels after its largest manufacturing plant Moraiya received form 483 observations. Cadila has lowered its dependence on Moraiya for new approvals. In case the plant is given an OAI status, Cadila still expects 20-30 new approvals coming from other plants, of which 10 should be limited competition. Most of its transdermal filings will also not be impacted. Company is favorably progressing in its efforts to build alternative growth platform (NCE, Biologics and Vaccines) which should start...
We downgraded CDH recently after the key formulations facility at Moraiya, Gujarat, received several critical observations related to contamination post USFDA's inspection. Since this facility contributes 40-45% to US revenues (in our estimates) and has ~30% of the pending US filings, we believe a warning letter (WL) or import alert would be detrimental for CDH (~40% downside). The US remains CDH's key performer as India and other segments have been disappointing consistently. Any slowdown in the US could severely hurt earnings, especially since gLialda, gTamiflu and gAsacol HD contribute 29% to US revenues (in FY19). In case of any adversities, the elevated debt (0.7x FY19E Net D/E) could prove to be fatal for earnings. We maintain NEU on CDH following a miss on our estimates. We have downsized our estimates to adjust for a weaker outlook on profitability over FY20-21E. Revised TP of Rs 285 (18x FY21E EPS) provides a limited upside.
The US (48% of revenues) has grown at a CAGR of ~17% in FY15-18 backed by aggressive filings and product launches. Launches of authorised generics also contributed to overall growth. The US pipeline (cumulative) consists of 330 filed ANDAs, 144 pending final approvals. The USFDA cleared Moraiya in February 2017. The new Ahmedabad SEZ and Baddi facilities have also started getting approvals. We expect US sales to grow just 3% to | 6643...
Healthcare (Cadila) reported 14.8% growth in total operating revenue to Rs. 3,732.8 crore (above estimate due to consolidation of the acquired business of Heinz India Pvt. Ltd. for two months). Operating profit declined by 8% to Rs. 800.4 crore (5% below estimate) and OPM declined by 533.8 BPS to 21.4% (estimated 23.2%). Adjusted profit declined by 19.5% to Rs. 479.2 crore (8.5% below...
Gross margin stood at 62.9% and contracted 380bp YoY on high base of past year. EBITDA margin at 21.4%, contracted 540bp YoY, largely due to change in product mix and higher other expenses as % of sales (+130bp YoY). Absolute EBITDA at INR8b (our est. INR7.2b) was down 8% YoY. PAT came in at INR4.6b (our est. INR3.9b), down 24% YoY. In FY19, sales/EBITDA/PAT stood at INR131b/INR30b/INR18.7b up 10%/5%/4% YoY. Key Con-call highlights: (a) Despite high base of FY19 witnessed in US sales, CDH guided to maintain business to remain at similar levels (USD900m) in...
Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) is on the largest Pharmaceuticals player both in US & Indian markets. However, over the last few years, the company has been going through tough times both in USA & Indian markets. While the Indian formulation market has been under pressure on back of the pricing norms & GST implementation, USA market
Robust US sales; high debt remains a concern Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) is India's leading vertically integrated pharmaceutical company. With its presence across the value chain, it manufactures finished dosage forms, active pharmaceutical...
Maintain BUY rating with a TP of Rs 465 (22x Dec-20E EPS). Cadila (CDH) reported a bumper quarter in 3QFY19 with revenue at Rs 35.9bn, up 11/23% YoY/QoQ (12% beat). Seasonality in the US and several launches over the last 6 months were the key reasons. Although EBITDA margin at 24.2% was up 257bps QoQ (155bps miss) on account of higher operating leverage in the US, there was a 300bps drop in gross margin due to higher AG sales.
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Q3FY19 results were stronger-than-expected on all fronts due to strong US growth. Revenues grew 9.8% YoY to | 3578 crore (I-direct estimate: | 3222 crore) due to 22.1%, 46.5% YoY, QoQ growth in the US to | 1934 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1563.4 crore) EBITDA margins contracted 234 bps to 23.5% (I-direct estimate: 23.3%), due to an adverse product mix. EBITDA remained flat at | 840 crore but higher than I-direct estimate of | 750.7 crore...
7 February 2019 Cadila Healthcares (CDH) revenue grew ~10% YoY to INR35.8b (v/s our est. of INR31b), largely led by 22% YoY growth in the US business (55% of sales) and strong ~84% YoY growth in Emerging Markets (~6% of sales). This was partially offset by ~8% YoY decline in domestic business domestic formulations (DF) (~24% of sales). Gross margin declined by ~340bp YoY and ~430bp QoQ to 62.2%, mainly due to change in the product mix and lower DF sales. EBITDA margin also contracted by ~250bp due to lower GM and higher R&D; spend (up ~100bp YoY as % of sales), which was partially offset by lower other expense (~220bp). Absolute EBITDA remained flat YoY at INR8.4b (v/s est. PAT declined by ~6% YoY to INR5.1b (v/s est. of INR4.2b) due to higher interest cost. For 9MFY19, sales stood at INR94.
Cadila's (CDH) Q2FY19 results were below our expectations. Sales/EBITDA/PAT were at Rs28.4bn/Rs5.7bn/Rs4.2bnn respectively. EBITDA margins were at 20.1% Vs. our estimates of 23.9% due to 1) lower off-take of Tamiflu given 7 players, 2) shift of AG to own ANDA in gAsacol not picked up in margins as the refection of only 1 month and 3) overall 2% QoQ price erosion in the US business. We expect domestic growth to be...
Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 475 (22x Sep-20E EPS). Cadila (CDH) reported a muted quarter in 2QFY19 with revenue at Rs 29.6bn, down 8%YoY/ up 2%QoQ (in-line). Despite recovering 7%QoQ, the US business was down 20%YoY as it witnessed competition in gLialda. Margin at 23.2% was down 338bps YoY and up 94 bps QoQ (110bps miss) on account of higher forex loss at Rs 578mn (v/s Rs 135mn in 2QFY18) and increased R&D; spend of Rs 2.7bn, 9% of sales.
Q2FY19 results were stronger-than-expected on the operational front likely due to slower-than-expected price erosion in gLialda (ulcerative colitis). Revenues were in line with I-direct estimates Revenues de-grew 8.4% YoY to | 2961.2 crore (I-direct estimate: | 2986.6 crore) mainly due to high base of gLialda (ulcerative colitis), exclusivity in the US in Q2FY18 EBITDA margins contracted 323 bps to 23.2% (I-direct estimate: 20.5%), mainly on account of higher employee cost. EBITDA de-grew...
4 November 2018 CDHs revenue declined ~8% YoY to INR29.6b (our (-20% YoY) and flat growth in domestic formulation (DF) business. Gross margin expanded by ~50bp YoY/QoQ to 66.5%. EBITDA margin contracted by ~320bp (+100bp QoQ) to 23.2% due to higher employee expense (+340bp as % of sales) and other expenditure (+260bp). PAT declined ~17% YoY to INR4.2b (in-line). For 1HFY19, sales stood at INR56.1b (+6% YoY), EBITDA at INR13.3b (+17% YoY) and PAT at INR8.8b (+37% YoY). (1) CDH launched g-Asacol HD from its in-house manufacturing facility, which drove some improvement in margin. (2) CDH launched authorized generic version (AG) of g-Androgel in October 2018. (3) CDH has been able to maintain g-Lialda sales as competitor was not able to gain market share.
With a revised TP of 495 (24x on FY20E EPS), we maintain BUY. Cadila (CDH) continues to be at pace with double-digit YoY growth which started in 2QFY18. In 1QFY19, CDH reported revenue at Rs 28.9bn showing a growth of 32%YoY. EBITDA at Rs 6.4bn and PAT at Rs 4.6bn were up 133% and 233% YoY respectively. EBITDA margin came in at 22.3%, improving ~1000bpsYoY. This growth was primarily driven by the US and India businesses which were up 27% and 40% YoY respectively. Other major segments including LATAM and ROW markets and consumer wellness, animal health, and API businesses also saw double digit growth.
