Zydus Lifesciences Ltd. share price target

Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF) Q4 EBITDA including other operating income beat our estimates by 8%. We believe gRevlimid + gMirabegron contributes +45% to total FY25E EPS which will see erosion from FY27. Though, company is working on a robust pipeline of complex products, including injectables, 505(b)2, transdermals, NCE, biosimilars and vaccines, they are expected to materialize over the next 23 years. We expect US sales to decline in FY27...

Zydus Lifesciences’ (Zydus) Q4FY25 revenue gained with healthy traction in US (+20%), domestic branded formulation (+10.7%) and its consumer business (+17.1%).

Zydus Lifesciences’ (Zydus) Q3FY25 revenue was in line with our expectations, but lower sales of gRevlimid and gAsacol led to a miss in earnings.

Revenue amounted to Rs. 5,237 crore, reflecting a 20% y-o-y increase but a 16% q-o-q decline,
primarily driven by reduced performance in the Indian consumer wellness segment, US
formulations and API business.

Zydus LifeSciences (ZYDUSLIF) delivered better-than-expected operational
performance for the quarter. While its revenue grew at a lower rate of 19% YoY (vs. est. of 25%).

Zydus Lifesciences Ltd has partnered with the Central Drug Research Institute (CDRI) to develop an oral
treatment for osteoporosis related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) and postmenopausal conditions, focusing on small-molecule inhibitors of the protein sclerostin.

Zydus’s Q1FY24 performance was boosted by solid traction in the US (up 8.4% QoQ). US benefitted from the ongoing shortages and better sales of gRevlimid while it has started facing competition in gTrokendi XR. India branded biz grew 10% ahead of the market growth of 9%.

Zydus Lifesciences’ (Zydus) Q4FY23 performance was driven by traction in its existing products and exclusive launches such as gRevlimid and gTrokendi XR. Revenue growth and margins of the base business were also quite healthy in our opinion.