Blue Dart Express Ltd. share price target

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q2FY23 performance was a slight miss on consensus estimates owing to higher costs.

We recently released our Logistics thematic report, wherein we stressed upon the superlative growth potential of the Indian Logistics sector and the opportunities for the organized players like Blue Dart Express (BDE). We had assigned a Neutral stance on the stock owing to its rich valuation. The unparalleled network presence of BDE and strong growth in Express cargo would drive consistent growth in volumes across its offerings over the next few years. With the easing of fuel prices (on account of tax cuts), margin is expected to remain at elevated levels in the near term....

EBITDA grew 35% YoY to INR2b (+138% QoQ). The EBITDA margin jumped to a near-record high of 17.7% (+61bp YoY); it improved on account of better realization and steps undertaken to increase efficiency. The company offered a one-time payment of INR360m rewarding its employees for their outstanding efforts during the COVID-19 crisis. Strong operating performance and lower depreciation resulted in 66% YoY growth in adjusted PAT to INR1.3b. We raise our EPS estimates by 26%/21% for FY23E/FY24E, factoring in the...

Air cargo segment beneficiary of evolving business climate During April, May, BlueDart cargo aircraft flew across domestic, international locations to carry essential supplies (supported by DGCA and Government of India). Also, owing to continued challenges being faced by surface and shipping players in timely delivery of cargo, air cargo is expected to be a beneficiary of the situation in the near to medium term, as the industry opens up in a phase-wise manner and manufacturers rush to transport shipments. For BlueDart, changes in product mix (2x realisation to...

In addition to expanding its reach to tier II, III cities (~19200 pin-codes across India), BlueDart has also embarked on a strategy to right size the company. DHL also plans to cut-back the work force (22-23% of topline), which would incrementally drive margins forward. During Q3, BlueDart took an exceptional loss of | 64 crore, which includes organisational right sizing, discontinuance of certain business activities and changing the operating software of certain business function. Further, the management of BlueDart...