Biocon Ltd. share price target

We have increased our target price to INR 505 (PEx 32x to FY23E earnings).

Biocon Ltd is an integrated biotechnology enterprise with a presence in biopharmaceuticals, enzymes, custom research and clinical research. The Company's pharmaceutical products include statins, immune suppressants and anti-diabetic drugs.

Outlook remains intact on new product launches, strong pipeline and limited competition in Biosimilars. Additionally, demographic changes will help drive demand across products. Hence, we maintain our BUY...

Biocon' Q2FY21 revenue grew by 11% vs. our expectation of 15% due to supply chain bottleneck and lower takeoff biosimilars' business in new geographies (covid-19 lockdown). EBITDA margins (22%) decreased by 400 bps on YoY due high R&D; expenses, frorex losses and other expenses.

Q2FY2021 was a soft quarter for Biocon. Revenues from operations grew by 11% y-o-y to Rs 1,745 crore. Adjusted PAT rose by 10.3% y-o-y to Rs. 173.8 crore. Improving traction in existing biosimilars, likely pick up in Semglee, geographical expansion are the key growth drivers for Biologics segment. Biocon has retained its guidance for $1 billion in revenues from the biologics segment...

Biocon Ltd is an integrated biotechnology enterprise with a presence in biopharmaceuticals, enzymes, custom research and clinical research. The Company's pharmaceutical products include statins, immune suppressants and anti-diabetic drugs.

Biocon reported a muted set of numbers for Q1FY21 with revenues growing at 14% on annual comparison but EBIDTA contracted by~6% and PAT by 27% on back of rising costs of Biologics business and higher R&D; spends.

Capital investment and product development are on track for the Generics segment, additional We maintain our EPS estimates for FY21/FY22 and value BIOS at 30x (20% discount to its five-year avg.), arriving at TP of INR450. BIOS is well-placed to deliver a 39% earnings CAGR over FY2022, led by new launches / increased market share for existing products in the Biologics segment and superior performance from the Generics / Research Services segment. New contracts, led by Mylans efforts, would lead to better market share going BIOS is on track with regard to developing Insulin Aspart. Considering new launches and strong traction from existing products, we expect a 43% CAGR in revenue to INR40b over FY2022. An increase in the number of customers and better traction from existing customers are expected to drive a 12 13% CAGR in Research Services revenue over FY2022E. BIOS delivered 16% YoY growth in this segment, led by favorable demand for API.