Bharat Forge Ltd. share price target

Revenue grew by 5.4% to Rs. 919.4 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. On the other hand, it decreased by 11.35% when compared with Q3FY16.

Bharat Forges (BHFC) 3QFY17 APAT at Rs 1.4bn (-17% YoY, 10% QoQ) was above expectations. Net revenue at Rs 9.4bn (-11% YoY) was in line with estimates owing to a decline in exports (-26% YoY). EBITDA margins improved by 100bps QoQ, driven by lower employee costs and expansion of gross margins ( 180bps QoQ).

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Bharat Forge reported its Q3FY17 numbers, which were below our estimates. Net revenues came in at | 944 crore, down 11% YoY, up 5.9% QoQ against our estimate of | 954 crore Domestic revenues came in at | 434 crore (up 8.4% YoY, 3.2% QoQ), against our estimate of | 450 crore. Domestic revenue growth was driven by industrial sector, which grew 35% YoY to | 175 crore Export revenues declined 22.9% YoY, up 7.5% YoY to | 485 crore...

We anticipate exponential growth in key business areas of Bharat Forge in the coming quarters.

We have cut our FY17-19E estimates by 4-9% to factor in weak auto/industrial exports. We revise our recommendation to NEUTRAL with a revised TP of Rs 943 (25x Dec-18E).

Bharat Forge (BFL) is the world largest forging companies with presence across automotive, power, oil & gas (O&G), construction & mining, rail, marine and aerospace industries.

Bharat Forges (BFL) 2QFY17 APAT at Rs 1.3bn (-28% YoY, -3% QoQ) came almost in line. Net sales at Rs 8.9bn (-20% YoY) were marginally lower than estimates owing to lower-than-expected tonnage (-15% YoY). EBITDA margins saw 130bps QoQ expansion on efficient cost control and improved productivity. Industrial demand continued to sag.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Bharat Forge reported its Q2FY17 numbers, which were above our estimates. Net revenues came in at | 891 crore, down 21% YoY, 1.5% QoQ vs. our estimate of | 863 crore. Domestic revenues declined 12.5% QoQ to | 421 crore as it was impacted by the sequential decline in M&HCV; demand. Export revenues grew 10.7% YoY to | 452 crore, driven by continued ramp up in PV business & initial signs of recovery in industry segment. The beat on the revenue...

Bharat Forge Limited (BFL) delivered disappointing performance in Q2FY17 with double digit YoY decline in profitability. In Q2FY17, its Revenue/EBIDTA/adj PAT declined by 20.7%/22.7%/26.3% YoY, but rose -1.5%/1.3%/4% QoQ to Rs 8.91bn/ 2.5bn/ 1.27bn as against our estimate of Rs 9.70bn/ 2.7bn / 1.4bn. Companys volume declined 15.3% YoY, while its average pricing contracted by 6.4% YoY due to inferior product mix and poor geographical mix.

Bharat Forge’s (BFL) 1QFY17 APAT at Rs 1.3bn (-48% YoY, -20% QoQ) was well below expectations. Net sales at Rs 9.6bn (-19% YoY) were a miss on account of sharper-than-expected decline in exports (-37% YoY). EBITDA margins saw 370bps QoQ drop on higher other expenses (+600bps QoQ), partially offset by gross margins benefiting from lower RM prices. Industrial demand continued to sag. HDFC Securities Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 906 based on 25x FY18E EPS.