Greenlam Industries Ltd. share price target

Capex completion expands addressable market; sets the stage for strong medium-term growth trajectory: The company has completed greenfield expansion for plywood and chipboard categories along with brownfield expansion for the laminate, incurring total ~1,450 crore capex over the last three years, apart from recently announced 2 Mn MSM addition (~70 crore capex) in Laminates by FY27 end. This has expanded its addressable market (largely plywood led) to ~ 49,000 crore vs. 11,000 crore in FY22. It expects the overall revenues to reach 4,500 crore...

We attended the analyst meet of Greenlam Industries (GRLM) to gain comprehensive insights into the woodpanel segment and its demand-supply dynamics. The company has recently completed greenfield and brownfield expansions in laminates, plywood, and chipboards. The management expects...

Backed by its domestic business up 22.2% y/y, Greenlam’s Q1 revenue was up 11.4% y/y to Rs6.7bn. On lower input costs the gross margin expanded 102bps y/y to 53%.

Greenlam’s Q3 revenue stepped up 7% y/y to Rs6bn. Stable input costs led to a slight, 20bps y/y, better gross margin to 55%. Front-loading of certain costs w.r.t the particle board plant pushed EBITDA down 11% y/y to Rs635m.

Dismal Q3 on weak performance of laminates segment and slow ramp-up of plywood segment

Greenlam’s Q2 revenue climbed 12.8% y/y to Rs6.8bn. The 52% gross margin was broadly the same. EBITDA rose 7.7% y/y to Rs 814m, while PAT was significantly down 11.6% y/y to Rs 345m.

Weak Q2 on lower-than-expected laminate volume and slow ramp-up of plywood segment

We retain a Buy on Greenlam Industries Limited with an unchanged PT of Rs. 670, considering its strong earnings growth trajectory over FY2024-FY2026E.

Consolidated revenues were in line with estimates, at Rs. 605 crore (up 17.4% y-o-y) aided by 13%
y-o-y growth in laminates revenues (volume growth of 12% y-o-y) and contribution from plywood
segment.

? We retain a Buy on Greenlam Industries Limited with a revised PT of Rs. 670, assigning a higher valuation multiple considering its strong earnings growth trajectory over FY2024-FY2026E.

GRLM: Management meet: Topline to strengthen post capex drive

Greenfield laminate plant in Andhra Pradesh to aid market share gains for GRLM in both export and domestic markets

AL: Margins continue to improve, maintain BUY. GRLM: Soft quarter on tepid demand environment. ORCMNT: Topline muted as volumes decline. PRINCPIP: Lacklustre quarter on sustained market share loss

Q3 PAT missed our estimate by 31% on weak laminate volumes and sharp increase in capital charge

Relief in national and regional lockdowns led to restoration of demand during Q2 but sales were below pre-COVID levels. During the quarter domestic / international...

Domestic laminate revenues degrew by 65.7% y/y while international laminate revenues marginally declined by 12.9% y/y. Further on y/y comparison, domestic veneer/wood flooring/doors witnessed sharp decline in sales of 75.4%/70.9%/27.4% respectively. Accordingly, totalnetsalescameinatRs1,604mn(44.6%y/y). AlthoughGRLMmanagedtoreduceoperatingcostsby37% y/y,theverynatureoflaminateindustryremainsfixedcost...