Balkrishna Industries Ltd. share price target

• Company Q3FY25’s earnings performance exceeds our estimates across the board.
• For Q3FY25, BIL reported revenue of INR 25,603 Mn (+12.6% YoY/ +5.8% QoQ), which outperformed our estimates by 4.3%.

Balkrishna Industries (BIL) delivered an operationally in-line performance in 3QFY25, with Fx gains driving an Adj. PAT beat at INR4.4b (up 43% YoY, vs. est. INR3.8b).

BIL’s Q2FY25 earnings performance exceeds our estimates across the board.
For Q2FY25, BIL reported revenue of INR 24,197 Mn (+7.4% YoY/ -10.9% QoQ), which outperformed our estimates by 4.0%.

Balkrishna Industries (BIL)’s 2QFY25 was operationally better than expected with EBITDA of INR6.2b (+13% YoY, est. INR5.9b), led by better ASP and lower promotional expenses.

For Q1FY25, BIL reported robust revenue of INR 27,145 Mn (+25.7% YoY, +1.2%QoQ), which outperformed our estimates.
Gross margin for the quarter expanded by 47 bps YoY (-88 bps QoQ) to 52.3%.

Quarterly Update Q1FY25

A 4.7% beat in topline resulted in in-line EBITDA, though PAT was 14.3% above estimates on higherthan-expected other income.

For Q4FY24, Balkrishna Industries (BKT) reported robust revenue of INR 26,819 Mn, a growth of 15.7% YoY/ 17.9% QoQ. The reported revenue was outperformed our estimated.

Quarterly Update Q4FY24

Strong earnings beat on robust volume growth (+12.8% q-o-q), healthy realisations (+3.9% q-o-q), and sharp gross margin expansion (+160bps q-o-q). Revenue and EBITDA exceeded estimates by 16.2% and 18.2%, respectively.

For Q3FY24, BIL reported consolidated revenue of INR 22,744 Mn, a growth of 5.0% YoY/ 0.9% QoQ. The underlying standalone volumes for the quarter were at 72,749 MT, reporting a growth of 9.4% YoY/ 3.1% QoQ.

Quarterly Update Q3FY24

For Q2FY24, BIL reported consolidated revenue of INR 22,532 Mn, a decline of 15.2% YoY but an improvement of 4.3% QoQ. The underlying volumes for the quarter were at 70,585 MT, reporting a decline of 10.5% YoY but an improvement of 5.0% QoQ. The volumes saw the benefit of postponement of deliveries from Q1FY24 to Q2FY24 due to the disruptive impact of cyclone Biparjoy.

Balkrishna Industries (BIL)’s Q2FY24 EBITDAM, at 24.4%, was up 170bps QoQ driven by a combination of lower raw material basket (RMB) cost, better product mix and favourable hedge rate. Post-inventory destocking at the dealer level in the last few quarters, inventory is now at normalised levels of 2-3 months, from highs of ~4 months.

Quarterly Update Q2FY24

Indian OHT exports in Aug’23 improved 4%/1% MoM/YoY and now is back in line with average monthly exports in CY23. Agri segment exports increased 6% MoM to ~USD 90mn as against OTR segment’s exports being at their highest in CY23 at USD 52mn, flat MoM. With export base reducing substantially from Aug’23, YoY, industry has shifted from a declining trajectory to a growing one.

Indian OHT exports improved sequentially by 12% in Jul’23 (in line with average monthly exports in CY23), though were down ~20% YoY. Agri segment exports increased 4% MoM to ~USD 85mn as against OTR segment exports at their highest in CY23 at USD 52mn, up 27% MoM.