Balkrishna Industries Ltd. share price target

Post stocking up of off-highway tyre (OHT) inventory at distributor level in end- markets between Mar-Jul’22, India’s OHT exports from Aug’22 were muted as a result of destocking amid improving container availability. OHT exports from the country bottomed out in Oct’22 at ~US$130mn vs Mar-Jul’22 average of ~US$170mn and recovered to a 5-month high of US$152mn in Dec’22.

Balkrishna Industries’ (BIL) Q3FY23 EBITDAM, adjusted for forex losses, came in at ~16%, ~400bps lower QoQ. EBITDAM decline was due to GM decline of ~430bps QoQ on the back of removal of surcharge on ASP of CIF exports by ~6%. This coincided with the usage of higher cost raw material inventory and gradual transition towards falling container contracts.

Quarterly Update Q3FY23

Our analysis suggests ~5-6% QoQ decline in volume for Balkrishna Industries (BIL), implying ~74-75k ton sales in Q3FY23 vs ~79k ton in Q2FY23.

Initiating Coverage Report

Balkrishna Industries (BIL) has reported strong demand trends in its key overseas markets with overall Q2FY23 exports revenue being up 25% YoY (in US$ terms) against industry exports being up 5% YoY.