Balkrishna Industries Ltd. share price target

For Q4FY23, BIL reported revenue of INR 23,170 mn (-2.4% YoY/ +7.0% QoQ). Sales volume was 72,676 MT, which was a decline of 5.8% YoY but an improvement of 9.3% QoQ. The Average Selling Price (ASP) per MT was higher by 3.6% YoY but contracted by 2.1% QoQ.

Balkrishna Industries’ (BIL) Q4FY23 EBITDA margin at 20.3% was in line with our estimate and up 420bps QoQ, driven by gradual decline in the cost of consumed raw material basket (RMB) and relatively lower-priced freight contracts. BIL is aiming at 200-300bps EBITDAM improvement in FY24 over current levels –on the back of lower RMB cost, better hedge rate and further normalisation of logistics cost.

Quarterly Update Q4FY23

Indian OHT exports declined for the third quarter in a row in Q4FY23, from the highs of Q1FY23, as with the easing of container supplies, distributors in target markets started cutting down inventory from elevated ~120 days to targeted levels of ~60 days.

Industry OHT exports remained subdued in Jan’23, closer to Oct’22 lows, post spiking up in the seasonally strong Dec’23. Overall OHT export revenues were down 9% YoY in Jan’23 (up 6% FY23-TD) with the agri tyre segment down 12% YoY vs OTR down 3% YoY.

Post stocking up of off-highway tyre (OHT) inventory at distributor level in end- markets between Mar-Jul’22, India’s OHT exports from Aug’22 were muted as a result of destocking amid improving container availability. OHT exports from the country bottomed out in Oct’22 at ~US$130mn vs Mar-Jul’22 average of ~US$170mn and recovered to a 5-month high of US$152mn in Dec’22.

For Q3FY23, BIL reported revenue of INR 21,656 mn (+5.9% YoY/ -18.5% QoQ). For 9MFY23, revenue was INR 74,425 mn (+25.7% YoY). Sales volumes for Q3FY23 declined by 5.5% YoY/ 15.7% QoQ to 66,480 units. Volumes were impacted due to channel inventory correction in end markets. This has led to lower sales for BIL even as the end user demand has remained intact.