UltraTech Cement Ltd. share price target

Profit Before Tax (PBT) inclined 193% to Rs 2,332 crore. With 161% rise in net tax outflow to Rs 747.40 crore, the PAT before MI and Share in Profit of Associates gained 210% to Rs 1,584.60 crore. After accounting outflow of Rs 0.02 crore in...

Ultratech Cement (UTCEM) Q3FY21 EBITDA came higher than our / consensus estimate by 9% / 14%. Beat is driven by volume, as we modelled volume growth of 5% vs. reported at 14% YoY. Cement demand until H1FY21 was driven by rural India, and from Q3FY21 UTCEM has witnessed demand in Urban housing market too. Region wise, its plant in East operated at 100% utilization, followed up by North, Central and West at 80%+ and South at 70%. Though, EBITDA/t was down by 3% QoQ driven by inflation in the energy prices. We factored better than expected result in our full year numbers. This has resulted in increase in the EBITDA by 5-6% over FY21-23E (refer Fig 9). Revised...

UTCEM reported strong set of Q3FY21 earnings with 11% beat on our EBITDA estimates. The Beat was led by lower than expected costs. EBITDA/t expanded 49% YoY at Rs1,328 (PLe:Rs1,195) on back of 3% (v/s PLe: 1.1%) YoY reduction in cost and 4.6% (v/s PLe:3.3%) YoY increase in realisations....

Construction and infrastructure activities are also picking-up of late. While we expect rural demand in FY21E to drive recovery on the back of normal monsoon and pick-up in individual housing building (IHB), FY22E would witness sharp pick-up in infra activity as well. We expect UltraTech to report volume CAGR of 7.3% in FY20-23E. While prices have improved in FY20 (up 5.3% YoY)) and stayed healthy during 9MFY21, we expect them to stabilise, going ahead, with a pick-up in volumes. We model realisation CAGR of 1.2% during FY20-23E to adjust for cost inflationary situation....

Target total capacity of 160 MT by FY30E; to reach 131 MT by FY23E The aim of reaching 160 MT by FY30E from 111.4 MT indicates capacity CAGR of 3.7% in FY20-30E. The newly announced cement capacity expansion of 12.8 MT (9.1 MT clinker capacity) and ongoing capex of 6.7 MT would take total capacity to 130.9 MT by end of FY23E. Region wise, major capacities are being added in the eastern, central region (73% of 19.5 MT), which has lowest road, power density per capita representing higher growth potential while rural population share remains one of the highest, providing...

Ultratech (UTCEM) approved new capacity expansion of 12.8mtpa. It would incur total capital outlay of Rs54.8bn with attractive capex cost of USD58/t, significantly below standard cost of USD75-80/t. This expansion is over and...

UltraTech (UTCEM)'s announcement today of organic expansion of 19.5mtpa (19%) by FY23 is positive on multiple counts 1) it provides visibility on aboveindustry volumes at a 10% CAGR over FY2124E, 2) it is incrementally positive for ROCE as expansion is at a cost of only ~USD55/t, implying ROCE of ~14% (v/s 10% currently), and 3) it addresses capital allocation concerns as cash flows over the next two years are deployed in the core business. Despite the expansion, we estimate UTCEM to turn net cash by 1HFY23. Reiterate Buy and the top-pick status in the Cement sector. Announces pan-India expansion at 100b p.a. from FY22. Announced capex of INR25b in...

Ultratech Cement (UTCEM) Q2FY21 EBITDA was higher than our / consensus estimate by 50% / 30%. Beat in the number is driven by a) volume which increased by 8% YoY versus our estimate of decline of 5% (incl. acquisitions) and b) Realization increased by 3% QoQ versus our estimate of decline of 2%. We have introduced FY23E estimate and increased EBITDA for FY21E/22E by 11% (exhibit 9). We roll forward our valuation to FY23 with revised TP of Rs5,073 (earlier Rs4393). We retain ACCUMULATE rating and TP is based on unchanged 13x FY23E EV/EBITDA multiple (which is average of last 10 years). Balance sheet deleveraging has continued, UTCEM consolidate net debt reduced...