UltraTech Cement Ltd. share price target

UltraTech Cement (UltraTech) reported consolidated revenue of Rs. 23,063 crore (up 13%% y-o-y) for Q4FY2025. The consolidated operating profit of Rs. 4,618 crore (up 12% y-o-y). Indian Cement sold 2.64 MT in volume and reached breakeven in Q4FY25, with an EBITDA of Rs. 40/tonne.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Healthy 10% YoY volume growth aids flat top line despite 10% dent in realisations in a challenging Q4; capacity utilisation spikes at ~90%

UltraTech Cement’s (UTCEM) commentary on short-term challenges (mainly low demand in Q1FY26 and no comments on price hike sustainability) may unnerve a few investors. However, we continue to believe in our sector revival hypothesis (of reducing competitive intensity) and of UTCEM being its largest beneficiary.

UTCEM targets India Cements (ICEM) EBITDA/t of Rs500/800 for FY26/27E, while Kesoram EBITDA/t is targeted at Rs800/1000 for FY26/27E. and commercial segments. Average blended std realization declined 3% QoQ, impacted by the consolidation of Kesoram (KSI); however, the recent increase in cement prices in April is expected to benefit in Q1FY26. Higher volume...

UltraTech Cement (UTCEM)’s 4QFY25 performance was in line with our estimates. EBITDA increased ~12% YoY to INR46.2b, while EBITDA/t declined 4% YoY to INR1,126 (est. INR1,104).

The cement sector is increasingly consolidating, enabling companies to expand geographically, secure vital limestone reserves, and achieve economies of scale. Acquisitions are allowing market leaders to scale up quickly and strengthen their competitive positions.

Mgmt. expects ~20-25% ROCE, 5-7x asset turnover, and EBITDA margins akin to industry on full ramp up. Wires to contribute ~60% of W&C revenue. UTCEM has announced its foray into the wires and cables (W&C) segment to strengthen its construction value chain through UltraTech Building Solutions (UBS) stores. Mgmt. has evaluated almost all building material categories and clarified W&C is the only category UTCEM will be entering for targeting growth over cement; being only strategic extension to cement having strong...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

UltraTech Cement’s capacity expansion remains a cornerstone of its growth strategy. By FY25, its cement capacity is projected to reach 182.8 million tonnes (28% of India’s total cement capacity) with plans to scale it to 209 million tonnes by FY27, through both organic and inorganic growth.

UTCEM allocates Rs18bn (~2% of capital allocation) in the building material value chain by investing in wire and cable business

We recommend a BUY on the stock for a target price of Rs 12,385 implying an upside of 10% from CMP

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

UltraTech Cement (UltraTech) reported broadly in-line standalone revenue at Rs. 16,328 crore (up 1.2% y-o-y) for Q3FY2025, led by strong volume growth of 10.6% y-o-y, while blended realizations were lower 8.5% y-o-y. Blended standalone EBITDA/tonne stood at Rs. 965, down 20.2% y-o-y while a good improvement of 31.9% q-o-q.

Healthy 10% YoY volume growth aids flat topline despite 9% dent in realisations in a challenging Q3; capacity utilisation at ~76%

UltraTech Cement’s (UTCEM) 3QFY25 operating performance was in line with our estimate, with EBITDA standing at INR28.9b (declined 11% YoY). EBITDA/t stood at INR951 (-20% YoY; vs. est. INR925).