Trent Ltd. share price target

Westside continues to be one of the most successful, established franchises, deriving 97% of share of revenues from private label brands. Over the last six years, Westside has sustained its same stores sales growth at 7%+, outperforming peers in the industry. Exceptional ramp up in store addition in non-metro cites, mainly through Zudio format (value fashion business) is one of the major growth drivers in coming years. Robust performance in a challenging scenario instils confidence in the business model, which would enable the company to command premium valuation multiple on a...

Trent has reported above expected result during 3QFY20. SSSG at 12% for 9MFY20 (c. 10.5% in 3QFY20) compared to 5% SSSG in Pantaloons for 3QFY20 and 2% SSSG in TCNS is extremely positive. Decline in gross margin is led by rise in the revenue share of the value fashion format Zudio. PBT on like to like basis rose significantly due to higher other income. Trent continues to out-perform competition over past several quarters. We have revised our SSSG assumptions and EPS estimates upward based on 9-M actual performance. We expect Trent to continue outperform other apparel retailers in India led by disruptive pricing and superior business model. Based on recent run-up in the stock...

Maintain Trents revenues were up 33% YoY to INR8.7b (in-line), led by strong performance of Westside stores that witnessed an impressive 22% YoY revenue growth and 10% SSSG, considering other retailers are facing the Post Ind-AS116, PAT was up 38% YoY to INR557m, while pre Ind-AS116 PAT was up 60% YoY to INR645m (7% beat). Thus, 3QFY20 SSSG stands at ~10%, witnessing strong traction in a weak Zudios revenues are estimated at 2.3x YoY to ~INR1.14b, now contributing 13% of the total standalone revenues (up from 5% in 3QFY19), led by fast Our SOTP-based TP of INR700 values Westside and Zara at 30x EV/EBITDA and Star at 2x EV/sales on FY22E.

22 November 2019 The Zudio store and products have a trendy look and feel, offer only casual wear (no formals) and is targeted at young value-seeking consumers. The lower pricing has also been possible due to (a) passing-on of low gross margin benefits (~30% v/s Westsides 55%), and (b) no marketing costs (in line with Westside). Given the low gross margins, Zudios success lies in its strong turnover revenue/sqft of ~12-15k/sqft (v/s industry average of INR8-10k/sqft). Zudios high fashion appeal and sharp pricing has led to an encouraging store operating metrics. Therefore, a franchisees capex is INR15-20m for a store size of 6k sqft; in turn, a franchisee receives a fixed revenue share, while the company operates the store and retains the profitability. Typically, franchisees get ~16% revenue share and 12-15% IRR, while the company garners strong ROCE on merely one-month inventory capital.

Overall result has been in line with our estimates. Westside continues to outperform its competitors based on strong same store sales growth performance during a period when consumption slowdown is at its peak. Decline in gross margin has been due to higher discount during end of season sale and increase in revenue share from Zudio. This is not too concerning as Trent, unlike branded retailers, is able to follow strict discounting policy; 2 months a year. Gross margin dilution coming from Zudio should not have significant spill-over EBITDA margin dilution impact. This is because, in value retailing its always high inventory turn (and not gross margin) which helps to build on...

We recently attended Trent's annual general meeting (AGM). The key takeaways are; 1) robust store addition plans in FY20 (100+ stores between Westside and Zudio), 2) outlaid capex of ~| 350-400 crore (~2x FY19), 3) opened its first exclusive store of its own ethnic brand, Utsa', 4) plans to raise additional capital worth | 600 crore in the next three to six months, 5) focus on enhancing share of private label brands for Star format with adoption of new pricing strategy to become more competitive, 6) adjusting for Ind-AS 116, EBITDA margins for Q1FY20 expanded 60 bps YoY to 12.6%...

Revenue growth healthy; PAT supported by other income: Standalone revenue increased strongly by 30% YoY, led by healthy 21% growth in Westside sales. EBITDA was up 130% at INR1.6b on account of Ind-AS 116 reclassification we, however, believe that this number makes limited sense in the absence of any company-provided reconciliation. Reported PBT was up 50% YoY at INR865m (INR85m/9% impact due to Ind-AS 116). On a preInd-AS 116 basis, PBT would have been INR950m (+62% YoY; 32% beat). PAT (post Ind-AS 116) was up 51% YoY at INR579m (23% beat), mainly led by significantly higher other income (+6x YoY to INR359m)....

The expected capital infusion (| 950 crore) by the promoters is likely to act as a key catalyst for healthy revenue growth. The capital to be raised can provide a strong fillip to store addition pace. A substantial amount is also expected to be invested in enhancing warehousing capacity and supply chain. We maintain our estimates and expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 23% in FY19-21E with EBITDA margin expansion of 140 bps to 10.1% by FY21E. We have not incorporated Ind-AS 116 impact on financials due to lack of data. Robust performance in a challenging scenario instils confidence...

10 July 2019 Westside is a well-oiled business format with a right product proposition, pricing and favorable store economics. It now plans to replicate Westsides success in Zudio, which will have competitive pricing and value products targeted at the youth. Against this promising backdrop, the company targets to double its store count potentially in three years (adding 60 stores). Subsequently, we have revised our store addition estimate for Westside/Zudio to 35/40 annually v/s 23/25 earlier. Keeping in mind its ambitious plans and accelerated growth, the company has announced equity fund raising plans of INR15.5b in end-June. calculations, Westside garners mid-teens RoCE, but the upcoming investments in scaling up both Westside and Zudio may keep the return profile in single- digits. Further, we expect RoIC to languish at ~10% in FY20E, but believe it will recover to healthy mid-teens level over the next 2-3 years on (a) Zudio driving scale benefits, (b) accelerated store addition, and (c) backend synergies.

Westside continues to be one of the most successful, established franchises in the women's wear category. With steady same store sales growth (8%) and aggressive store addition (added 25 stores: highest store addition historically in a single year); revenues from the Westside format grew robustly by 17% YoY in FY19. Private label brands continue to dominate the product portfolio with the share now touching 97% (from 80% in FY13). On the profitability front, gross margins for Westside format declined 210 bps YoY to 57.9%, mainly owing to price rationalisation in selected categories of...