Transport Corporation of India Ltd. share price target

As “Leaders in Logistics”, TCI continuously strives to better existing systems, processes and productivity. Its integrated and diversified business profile and customer base, coupled with a healthy proportion of contracted business, provide adequate revenue visibility.

Transport Corporation of India Limited (TCI) reported higher-than-estimated consolidated revenue at Rs. 1,147 crore (up 14.5% y-o-y), driven by growth in SCM (12.9% y-o-y), while freight (up 8.8% y-o-y) remained soft as expected and Seaways revenue (up 9% y-o-y).

Transport Corporation of India’s (TRPC) revenue grew 14.5% YoY to ~INR11.5b in 3QFY25 (in line). EBITDA margin came in at 10.3% (est. 10.8%), up 40bp YoY and down ~10bp QoQ. EBITDA increased 19% YoY to INR1.2b, while APAT grew 27% YoY to ~INR1b (est. INR1b).

Diversified service offerings (Freight, Supply Chain, and Seaways), coupled with sectoral resilience, helped TRPC maintain double-digit growth in 1HFY25.

We retain BUY on TCI with an unchanged SOTP-based PT of Rs. 1,400, considering its sustained healthy earnings growth trajectory over the next 2-3 years.

We retain Buy on TCI Limited with a revised PT of Rs. 1400, increasing our valuation multiples for its
strong performing SCM, Seaways and Transystem JV businesses.

We retain BUY on TCI with a revised SOTP-based PT of Rs. 1,200, as we roll forward our valuation to
H1FY2027E earnings.

Transport Corporation of India Limited (TCI) reported an in-line consolidated revenue at Rs. 1,045 crore (up 10.0% y-o-y), aided by sustained growth in SCM (revenue up 11.6% y-o-y), pick up in seaways (up 14.2% y-o-y), while freight (up 5.9% y-o-y) remained soft.

Despite the likely decline in seaways business, we expect EBITDA margin to improve to 10.5% by FY26E on the back of higher proportion of LTL in surface division.

TRPC is benefiting immensely from being a multi-modal logistics provider. It is
the only player in the domestic logistics industry that offers services across
road, rail, and sea.

Transport Corporation of India (TRPC) is projected to achieve consistent
growth ahead, driven by a) a rising proportion of LTL shipments within the
freight division (37% in 9MFY24, up from 35% in FY23), b) sustained demand
in the automotive sector, bolstering the supply chain division, and c) the
accumulating advantages from the expansion of multi-modal logistics.