Suzlon Energy Ltd. share price target

We initiate coverage on Suzlon Energy (SUEL) with a BUY rating and a target price of INR70/share, implying 21% upside. SUEL is a global leader in wind energy with an installed capacity of ~20.9GW across 17 countries.

Great business but not at a great price

The Indian power grid needs more wind in its mix. The need to enhance wind capacity addition (post subdued activity in the recent past) has finally dawned upon the stakeholders. Grids are looking for a solution to meet demand effectively while containing carbon emissions.

We recently interacted with the management of Suzlon Energy (SUEL) to gauge the business prospects.

Suzlon reported revenue a fall of 50.5% YoY to INR 12.8bn against our estimates of INR 16.05bn. The subdued growth is on account of lower than estimated execution, which was 155MW against our estimates of 200MW. There was solar revenue in Q1FY18, which was not the case in Q1FY19 and hence other revenues declined from INR 3.31bn in Q1FY18 to INR 0.27bn. EBITDA excl fx remained at INR 77cr against INR 475cr in Q1FY18 due to poor executions which impacted operational performance of WTG segment. WTG segment reported EBITA loss of INR 3.85bn against a profit of INR 2.1 bn in Q1FY18....

We recently met Mr. Kirti Vagadia, Group CFO, Suzlon Energy Ltd, to get insights about present developments within the industry as well as the company. During our meet, Mr. Vagadia explained to us about the challenging times in FY18 along with promising outlook with healthy order backlog in the near future post improvement in the order announcements by SECI. The management seems confident that the Indian wind sector will witness 8-10 GW of capacity addition every year for next 4-5 years, which could translate into capacity addition of ~2-2.5 GW p.a. by Suzlon given its dominant market share. The expectation of robust capacity addition is attributable to the national wind energy target of 60 GW by FY22. Further, sharp cut in the wind tariff post change in the regime could also result into adoption of more green energy as against thermal in the years to come. We expect the progress could also get ramped up once there is be successful adoption of a wind hybrid technology, which will improve the average PLF in the...

Suzlon Energy Ltd Q2FY18 results comment Revenue fell by 71.58% to Rs. 637.81 Cr in Q2FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it decreased by 67.12% when compared with Q2FY17.

Suzlon revenue expanded by 62% YoY to INR 26762.4 mn during this qtr against our estimates of ~INR 28716 mn. The growth was led by 326MW of execution in wind and 86MW in solar. The operational performance improved by 262% YoY to INR 4327.7 mn against our estimates of INR 3475 mn primarily owing to lower than anticipated employee cost. EBITDA margin increased by 1052 bps YoY to 16.2%. PAT stood at INR 490.8 mn against our estimates of INR 875 mn loss. The increase in bottom-line growth was supported by robust...

Revenue fell by 46.62% to Rs. 2665.26 Cr in Q1FY18 when compared to the previous quarter Revenue fell by 46.62% to Rs. 2665.26 Cr in Q1FY18 when compared to the previous quarter

Company Update

Revenue increased by 50.56% to Rs. 4992.59 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter.

Suzlons (SUEL) 4QFY17 result was a beat on all counts, with volume at 554MW ( 25% YoY) and realisations at Rs 82.2 mn/MW. EBITDA margins also improved ( 70bps YoY to 14.1%), leading to an APAT of Rs 2.7bn (ahead of our estimate of Rs 2.3bn). SUEL ended FY17 with volumes of 1,573 MW ( 39% YoY).

We initiate coverage on Suzlon Energy Ltd as a BUY with a price objective of Rs 42.8 which represents a potential upside of 115% from the CMP of Rs 19.9

Suzlon Energy Ltd. (SEL) is the largest renewable company in India as well as the largest wind equipment manufacturer. It is market leader in India with global footprints across Asia, Australia, Europe, Africa, North and South America. The company has a capacity to manufacture 3.6GW WTG. SEL operates through three segments namely; sale of WTG (Wind Turbine Generators), foundry & forging and operations and maintenance services. SEL' services range from feasibility studies to manufacturing of wind turbine components and installation and commissioning of wind farms as well as long term operations and maintenance. The company has 15 manufacturing facilities spread...

Revenue increased by 30.91% to Rs. 2548.0 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it increased by 92.47% when compared with Q3FY16.

EBITDA margin expanded by 800 bps y/y to 21.6% due to higher capacity utilization The raw material cost and other expenditure yoy increased by 80 % and 24% respectively. Staff expenditure stood at `2,555 mn( +26.6% y/y; -1.3% q/q) Depreciation was at `1094mn (+15.5% q/q; +12.2% y/y). Interest expense stood at `3391 mn (+18.6% y/y; +13.7% q/q) .This increase was mainly due to higher working capital requirement during the quarter. Consolidated net term debt (excluding FCCB)...

Suzlon Energys (SUEL?s) 3QFY17 result was a beat on all counts with volumes of 462MW ( 80% YoY) and EBITDA margins of 22.5% ( 490bps YoY) - leading to a higher-than-expected APAT of Rs 3.0bn. Improvement in EBITDA margins was led by operating leverage benefit and a favourable revenue mix (lower EPC).