Sobha Ltd. share price target

As per Sobha’s business update, the company has achieved its best ever quarterly volumes in Q2FY22 with gross sales bookings of 1.35msf worth Rs10.3bn which were up 51% YoY in volume terms and 49% YoY in value terms driven by Bengaluru, Gurugram and Pune markets. While Q1FY22 saw a muted performance owing to the second Covid wave across India, the improved Q2FY22 performance reflects the strong demand in South India driven hiring in IT/ITeS sector, accompanied by salary hikes and low mortgage rates of 6.5-7.0%. We expect this momentum to continue into H2FY22.

Stable Pre-sales, Rising Debt: During the quarter, the pre-sale volume remained steady at 1.07 Mnsft

SDL has slowed down new launches and focus is on monetizing existing unsold area (14.8mn sqft). Cash flows have been a drag due to last mile completion of Residential/Lease assets and lower quantum of contractual advances. Whilst residential segment is pain for sector, SDL has shifted focus to <Rs 20mn ticket size which continues to do well. Cash flows run rate recovery, pickup in demand and debt reduction shall lead to re-rating. We maintain BUY. Key risks: (1) Weak order inflow in the contracting business, (2) Muted collection momentum and (3) Capex on land bank addition despite having robust development inventory. Sobha (SDL) delivered Rev/EBIDTA beat (7.5/15%) but high interest cost and deferred asset write down (shift to new tax regime) resulted in PAT miss (8.4%). Operating cash flow on 9MFY20 saw sharp fall despite steady collections and pre-sales. Despite this we believe affordable segment recovery will play out and operating cash flows to normalize from 1QFY21E. We maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 590/sh

Inspite of strong pre sales volume growth, realizations were muted leading to only a 1% increase in Sobha's pre sales numbers to INR 608 Cr.

Stable Pre-sales, Weak Earnings: During the quarter, the pre-sales volume remained steady at 1.04 Mnsft

Sobha Ltd. reported its Q1FY20 results. The company recorded muted pre-sales volume of 1.0msf, flat on a YoY (down 3% QoQ).

SDL has ~16.2mn sqft of unsold area in ongoing projects and expects to add 10.5mn sqft from new projects in the pipeline, over the coming quarters. Whilst SDL has only 0.22 mnsqft of unsold completed inventory worth Rs 1.2bn we remain cautious on land bank addition of Rs 1.8bn during 1HFY20 (given SDL already has a high unsold under construction inventory, 4yrs). Net D/E is expected to reduce to 1.1x by FY20E as the collections from two projects where issue of delay in registration was resolved is expected to see improved collections coupled with 2mn sqft of planned launches in 2HFY20. The contracting business is seeing good growth with an order book of Rs 21.7bn. We maintain BUY. Key risks: (1) Weak order inflow in the contracting business, (2) Dip in collection momentum and (3) Aggressive incremental land bank addition. Sobha delivered a Rev/EBITDA/PAT miss of 34/30/31% respectively on the back of 49% QoQ revenue dip in the Real Estate segment with Contracts and Manufacturing segment holding steady. We maintain BUY with a reduced TP of Rs 647/sh.

Pre-sales Increasing Steadily and Debt Too: During the quarter, the company experienced a 11% YoY growth in pre-salevolume which stood at 1.06 Mn, although pre-sale value remained flattish YoY dueto decrease in realisation by 8%.

SDL has ~17.1mn sqft of unsold area in ongoing projects and expects to add 10.7mn sqft from new projects in the pipeline, over the coming quarters. Whilst SDL has only 0.3 mnsqft of unsold completed inventory worth Rs 1.2bn we remain cautious on land bank addition of Rs 1.5bn during 1QFY20 (when SDL already has high unsold under construction inventory). Net D/E is expected to reduce to 1.1x by FY20E as there were delays in agreement registration in two projects, which resulted in slower collections. The contracting business is seeing good growth with an order book of Rs 22.3bn. We maintain BUY. Key risks: (1) Further deterioration in NBFC liquidity, (2) Weak order inflow in the contracting business, (3) Dip in collection momentum and (4) Any aggressive land bank addition. We maintain BUY post a stable quarter. Our SOTP-based TP is maintained at Rs 652. We have increased our EPS estimate by 2/2.1% for FY20/21E.

Sobha Ltd. reported its Q1FY20 results. The company recorded pre-sales volume of 1.1msf, up 11% YoY (down 6% QoQ), while on value basis pre-sales stood at INR 661cr, up 12% YoY (down 7% QoQ) in Q1FY20