Siemens Ltd. share price target

SIEM's 1QFY21 revenue growth of 15% YoY suggests a gradual recovery, in line with the trend across peers. EBITDA grew 13% as EBIDTA margin declined 30bp YoY. Adjusted for strong cut in other expenses (5.6% of sales v/s 9.6% in 1QFY20), the margin trend seems to be under pressure and needs monitoring over next 1-2 quarters. Other income declined 33% YoY to INR570m, despite nearly 10% YoY increase in the cash balance, suggesting the impact of declining interest rate on excess cash on the Balance Sheet. Smart infrastructure and Digital Industries witnessed a strong rebound....

Currently utilization is at 75% plus level with an uptick in order inflows up 8.7% YoY. Sectors like Pharma, F&B;, T&D;, etc. remain optimistic. Siemens Ltd (SIEM) reported healthy set of numbers despite of challenging environment. During 4Q, better revenue was driven by higher share of services business, strong execution of OB and rising labour availability. Further better gross margins and cost control measures helped improve margins during the quarter. OI came in at Rs32bn, up 8.7% YoY led by...

Siemens India, a flagship company of Siemens AG (Germany), is an integrated technology provider and a leading powerhouse in electronics and electrical engineering. Siemens is strongly placed in Energy and Infrastructure including transmission & distribution, automation, urban...

During 3QSY20, the company incurred Rs2.3bn of additional cost related to Covid-19 which resulted to an operating loss. Siemens Ltd (SIEM) reported weak set of numbers primarily led by deferment in offtake by customers, slowdown in short-cycle business and weak demand environment from large infrastructure projects. As per our estimates, order inflows came in at ~Rs19bn (down 37% YoY) on account of delay in ordering activity as orders deferred due to various reason such as re-negotiation of...

deferment in offtake by customers, slowdown in short-cycle business and weak demand environment from large infrastructure projects. As per our estimates, order inflows decline by 20% YoY to ~Rs30bn, thereby leading to 4% YOY decline in order backlog to ~Rs125bn. Management indicated that capex spending will continue to remain weak in the near term due to overall slowdown in the economic activities and various countries facing restriction on anticipation of long-term economic consequences. Further, we believe that the numerous stimulus packages announced by various countries would...

Recommendations and stock picks: Outlook on ordering both domestic/international ex roads is likely to be weak. Banks lending will be selective. We have downgraded ABB from ADD to SELL and Siemens from ADD to REDUCE. We have cut PSP/ITD rating from BUY to ADD. We maintain BUY ratings on other coverage stocks. For our coverage universe, we have recalibrated the P/E multiple/EPS estimates lower resulting in TP cuts by 10-60%. In cap goods, LT is our top pick. In the mid cap EPC space, KNR, PNC, HG Infra and Ahluwalia are our top picks. COVID-19 poses multiple headwinds: Industrials companies have been hit hard by COVID-19 pandemic. Execution has started to pick up slowly post almost a month of lockdown. Local Govt approvals are coming slowly as the sector grapples for remobilization of sites. Urban areas are being turned into containment fortresses and it will take time for the works to resume. This will largely impact Metro and Real Estate projects execution. National Highway projects are still executable as they run through interior State districts with limited COVID-19 impact. We believe pure play NH EPC players are best placed to tide through the crisis. Buildings players are worst impacted.

SIEM has well-diversified product offerings across power, infrastructure and industry verticals and the impact of economic slowdown is more profound compared to say ABB, which is now a pure play products & services company. Over FY14-19, the continued business segmental EBIT CAGR stood at 21% v/s revenue growth of 9%. Over FY19-22, we forecast continued business segmental EBIT CAGR at 15% v/s revenue CAGR of 9%. We attribute margin expansion to (a) better sales mix, (b) rising share of services and (c) operating leverage in industrial automation segment of the business. There is scope of margin expansion in mobility segment as well given benign competition as the established player CG Power is struggling. economic slowdown impacting top-line growth, the company did well on working capital management. Adjusted for L&A; to related parties, the working capital cycle stood at 47 days in FY19 v/s 59 days in FY18.

SIL 1QFY20 start is weak on back of muted public/private capex. EBIDTA margin expansion was a positive surprise. Growth headwinds remain with limited visibility on Infrastructure ordering. Tight liquidity environment makes it further challenging to maintain NWC. Whilst ex GP (highly cyclical), less cyclical segments like Digital Industries & Mobility continue to see traction, large ordering is still awaited. While Mobility business sale was earlier put on hold we await clarity on highest revenue contributing segment-Power & Gas. Exports segment is also stagnant owing to weak global demand. We maintain NEU. Key risks (1) Delays in Government capex recovery, (2) Slowdown in private investments, (3) INR depreciation, and (4) Any adverse corporate action. Slowdown in capex and delayed customer off-take has resulted in a muted 1QFY20 Rev performance. SIL delivered Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat/(miss) of (12)/3/(4)%. Our FY20/21E EPS is unchanged. Maintain NEU on Siemens India Ltd. (SIL) with a TP of Rs 1,463/sh.

Our view: The deal is negative in the near term as SILs PBT will reduce by Rs 1.2bn (at 6% income yield on Rs 21bn cash outgo) whilst new business PBT of Rs 664mn will accrue. Net basis PAT will be lower by Rs 314mn (Value - Rs 11.1bn at 35x target P/E, 1.9% Mkt cap). Over longer term with better visibility emerging on Public/Private electrification capex, improving liquidity scenario in the overall market & relative easing of global trade tensions, this acquisition will gear the company to cater to local as well as global markets. EVENT: Siemens has entered into a definitive agreement for an all cash debt free acquisition of 99.22% stake in Delhi based C&S; Electric Ltd. at an EV of ~Rs 21bn ($297 million). Revenue/PAT of the C&S; for FY2019 was Rs 12,411/329.3mn. As on Mar-19, C&S; had networth of Rs 5,100mn and total debt outstanding of Rs 2,668mn.

25 January 2020 announced the acquisition of 99.22% stake in C&S; Electric Ltd at an EV of INR21b. C&S; Electric is engaged in the business of low-voltage/medium- voltage switchgears, busbars, diesel gensets, solar and EPC; the company has been in the Indian market for over 50 years. Electric, such as MV switchgears and package sub-station, lighting, diesel generating sets, EPC and the Etacom busbars will be retained by the In FY19, the company clocked revenue of INR12.4b. EBITDA stood at INR1.2b with EBITDA margin at 9.5%. Adjusted PAT stood at INR527m, while reported PAT at INR329m was due to impairment of INR197m. Net D/E stood at 0.4x as the company had gross debt of INR2.1b; RoE/RoCE ratio stood at 10.3%/9.7%. However, as Siemens is acquiring C&S; Electrics product business, the financial profile of the acquired portfolio could be different than that of the entire company.