Astra Microwave Products Ltd. share price target

Astra Microwave Products (AMP) Q3FY25 performance was steady. Consolidated EBITDA margin was at 29.5%, benefitting from execution of defence orders.

Astra Microwave Products (ASTM) Q1FY25 performance was stable. Standalone EBITDA growth of 7.8x YoY on better product mix.

Astra Microwave Products’ (AMW) has reported subdued Q1FY24 earnings as performance was mainly impacted by higher proportion of export sales and low margin domestic sales. Key points: 1) Export sales was 60% (vs 40% in Q1FY23) of overall; 2) EBITDA declined 86.7% YoY to INR 31mn as normalised cost could not be mitigated by low margin execution; 3) management expects order inflow of INR 10bn in FY24 and orderbook as on Jun’23 end was INR 15.8bn (export - ~19% and domestic - ~81%).

Astra Microwave’s (AMW) Q4FY23 EBITDA was up 34% YoY to Rs343mn. Key highlights: i) higher proportion of exports at 54.6% (Q3FY23: 31.5%) led to QoQ decline in EBITDA margin due to low-margin nature of exports; 2) order inflow during the quarter stood at Rs1.2bn, including Rs722mn from defence sector.

Astra Microwave (AMW) has reported strong performance in Q2FY23. Key highlights: 1) visible shift to defence sector; 2) targeting high-margin domestic market.

Astra Microwave (AMW) has reported better than expected Q1FY23 numbers. Revenue was up 25.8% YoY.

Order backlog is at Rs1,559cr, which is 2.6x FY21 sales. Order inflow was at Rs916cr, showing signs of improvement. We believe that headwinds like order inflow & execution delays have seen some improvement. While order inflow visibility has shown improvement in recent times. Order intake guidance of Rs750cr for FY22E is encouraging. Going ahead with given order execution mix, we expect EBITDA margin remain in the range of 12-13% versus 20% (5yr avg.). However, likely hit on margin profile is expected to hurt the profitability and valuations in the long run....

Astra Microwave Products (Astra) Q4 earnings was below our expectation mainly on account of low order booking in the previous quarters and slow pace of execution in Q4. Revenue for Q4 came in at Rs. 1,132 Mn lower by 33% compared to Q4FY18 and PAT for the same period was down by 75% to Rs. 73 Mn.

Order intake guidance of Rs650cr for FY20E is encouraging. Going ahead with pick-up in execution of higher margin domestic orders, we expect EBITDA margin to improve. However, given steep fall in EBITDA margin in Q3FY19, we lower...