Adani Total Gas Ltd. share price target

A frontrunner in CGD is expanding into biogas & EV charging points

HOLD' for the long-term gains

Spot prices remain volatile; any RM hikes to be passed on to the customers: Spot prices remained extremely volatile over last 3 months, however ATGL was still able to increase its industrial PNG volumes on account of its superior gas sourcing. For CNG segment, ATGL has taken multiple hikes in a period of extremely favourable gas economies with (APM gas at USD 1.79mmbtu) given the hikes in alternative fuels. We strongly believe that any hikes on the domestic...

AGL reported sales volume decline of 10.3% YoY for Q2FY21. CNG sales were down ~21% YoY to 0.6 mmscmd due to lower transportations vs. preCovid level. However, CNG sales improved 146% QoQ post relaxations in lockdown. PNG sales registered an increase of ~1% YoY to 0.8 mmscmd mainly due to full recovery in the industrial segment. On QoQ basis, PNG sales increased 80%. However, commercial PNG sales are still lower. During the quarter, sales increased MoM from 84% of pre-Covid level in July to 98% of pre-Covid level in September. Going forward, we estimate sales volume...

AGL reported sales volume decline of 53.6% YoY for Q1FY21. The extended lockdown resulted in a sharp decline of 66.2% YoY in CNG sales at 0.3 mmscmd. Similarly, PNG sales registered a decline of 40% YoY to 0.4 mmscmd mainly due to fall in volumes in the industrial and commercial segment. Only domestic PNG segment registered growth at ~17% YoY. During the quarter, sales increased MoM from April lows and were at 1.1 mmscmd by June end. The management said sales volume further improved in July and were at ~1.4 mmscmd. Going forward, we estimate...

Lower volume growth on account of lockdown AGL reported lower sales volume growth of 2.8% YoY for Q4FY20. The nationwide lockdown in the last week of March resulted in a decline of 2% YoY in CNG sales to 0.8 mmscmd, which led to weaker volume growth. However, PNG sales increased 8% YoY to 0.8 mmscmd. AGL added 12000 domestic PNG connections and 198 industrial/commercial customers in Q4FY20, which led to PNG sales growth. Both industrial and domestic PNG segment reported strong sales growth while commercial PNG sales...

Strong regulatory tailwinds make it a multi-year story PNGRB's latest two bidding rounds gave a massive push to the overall CGD infrastructure with ~4x increase in CNG outlets and ~7x increase in PNG connection. With no caps on tariffs, the revised PNGRB bidding regulation puts emphasis on network coverage, further encouraging execution, which has been AGL's forte. The environment tribunal's restriction on traditional fuels in many...